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MM5在上海区域气象中心数值预报中的改进和应用
THE IMPROVEMENT AND APPLICATION OF MM5 IN NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF SHANGHAI REGIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER
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摘要: 以国家气象中心数值预报产品为依托, 根据上海区域气象中心计算机资源配置情况, 用NCAR-PSU/MM5V2作为动力框架, 确定了侧边界嵌套方案、积云参数化方案和边界层参数化方案, 研制了资料分析同化方法和预报结果后处理方法及产品显示软件, 建立了上海区域气象中心第五代数值预报业务系统, 可提供华东地区138个城市每3 h一次的地面要素预报.半年多准业务运行表明, 预报效果较好, 对区域内气象台站的业务预报有良好的参考价值.Abstract: According to the computer resources available in Shanghai Regional Meteorological Center and numerical forecast products of National Meteorological Center, the schemes of lateral boundary nesting, cumulus parameterization and planetary boundary layer parameterization are selected. On the basis of the dynamical frame of NCAR-PSU/MM5V2, the methods of data analysis and assimilation, post-processing and vision software of forecast products are studied. In addition, the fifth-generation operational numerical prediction system of Shanghai Regional Meteorological Center is set up and the surface element predictions per 3 h for 138 cities over East China can be provided. Through half an year quasi-operation, it is shown that the prediction performance is good, and it is valuable for the operational forecast of meteorological observatory.
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表 1 SLAM5与SLAM4不同之处比较
表 2 SLAM5与SLAM4 1998年1～8月降水TS评分 (WTS) 比较
表 3 SLAM5与SLAM4平均预报误差 (AMα) 比较
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[1] 殷鹤宝, 顾建峰, 雷小途.上海区域气象中心业务数值预报新系统及其运行结果初步分析.应用气象学报, 1997, 8 (3):358~367. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19970350&flag=1 [2] Georg A G, Jimy D and David R S.A Description of the Fifth-Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5).NCAR Technical Note, June 1994. [3] 顾建峰.有限区域模式侧边界处理方案的比较试验.气象, 1998, 24 (5):34~38. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX805.007.htm [4] 顾建峰.不同深对流参数化方案在降水预报中的比较试验.气象, 1999, 25 (4):39~44. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX904.009.htm -
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