设为首页
加入收藏
我国降水变化趋势的空间特征
SPATIAL PATTERNS OF CHANGE TREND IN RAINFALL OF CHINA
-
摘要: 利用1951年至1996年地面气象记录资料, 计算了我国全年和季节降水量长期变化趋势特征指数.结果表明, 我国长江中下游地区年和夏季降水量呈现明显增加趋势；北方的黄河流域降水表现出微弱减少趋势, 山东和辽宁省夏季雨量减少显著；但偏高纬度地区的新疆、东北北部、华北北部和内蒙古降水量或者增加, 或者变化趋势不明显.因此, 1997年黄河史无前例的断流和1998年长江特大洪水的发生, 均有其相应的区域长期降水气候趋势作为背景条件.研究还表明, 我国一些地区降水的季节性也发生了变化, 其中黄河中上游地区和长江中游地区春、秋季雨量占全年比例均有显著减少, 而河北东部、辽宁西部和东北科尔沁沙地春季降水相对增加.Abstract: By using surface data from 1951 to 1996, the long-term change trend index of annual and seasonal precipitation of China is calculated. The results show that total annual and summer precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River increased during the 46 years, and a detectable decline trend in precipitation is found over the Yellow River basin, especially for Shandong and Liaoning provinces. In the high latitude areas such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and North China, however, the change trend in rainfall is not obvious. It is also found that seasonal drift in precipitation occurred in some regions in the period. Rainfall during spring and autumn has significantly decreased over the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River and the middle reach of the Yangtze River, and increased relatively in spring in eastern Hebei Province, western Liaoning Province and the Horqin Sand Land.
-
Key words:
- Climate change;
- Precipitation trend;
- The Yangtze River;
- The Yellow River;
-
表 1 1960~1996年我国年、夏季降水趋势系数 (r) 和降水倾向率 (b)
-
[1] 中国气象局国家气候中心. 98'中国大洪水与气候异常. 北京: 气象出版社, 1998. 1~31. [2] 中国气象局. 中国气候公报. 北京, 1997. 6~15. [3] 李克让, 林贤超. 近40年来我国降水的长期变化趋势. 见: 施雅风等编. 中国气候与海平面变化研究进展 (二). 北京: 海洋出版社, 1992. 44~45. [4] 张素琴, 任振球, 李松勤.全球温度变化对我国降水的影响.应用气象学报, 1994, 5(3):333~339. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19940358&flag=1 [5] 屠其璞.近百年来我国降水量的变化.南京气象学院学报, 1987, 10(2):117~189. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NJQX198702006.htm [6] 任国玉.与当前全球增暖有关的古气候学问题.应用气象学报, 1996, 7(3):361~370. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19960352&flag=1 [7] IPCC. Climate Changel995. The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. 1996. http://www.nhbs.com/title/47907/climate-change-1995-the-science-of-climate-change [8] 王绍武, 赵宗慈.未来50年中国气候变化趋势的初步研究.应用气象学报, 1995, 6(3): 333~342. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19950352&flag=1 [9] 陈隆勋, 邵永宁, 张清芬, 等.近四十年我国气候变化的初步分析.应用气象学报, 1991, 2(2):164~173. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19910215&flag=1 [10] 徐国昌, 姚辉, 李珊.我国干旱半干旱地区现代降水量和历史干旱频率的变化.气象学报, 1992, 50(3): 378~382. doi: 10.11676/qxxb1992.047 [11] 施能, 陈家其, 屠其璞.中国近100年来4个年代际气候变化特征.气象学报, 1995, 53(4):431~439. doi: 10.11676/qxxb1995.049 -
下载:
图(6) / 表(1)
计量
- 摘要浏览量: 6112
- HTML全文浏览量: 625
- PDF下载量: 2902
- 被引次数: 0
