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赤道东太平洋海温与我国江淮流域夏季旱涝的成因分析
EQUATORIAL EASTERN PACIFIC SST AND ANALYSIS ON CAUSES OF SUMMER FLOODS/DROUGHTS IN THE CHANGJIANG AND HUAHE RIVER BASIN
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摘要: 对赤道东太平洋和西太平洋暖池海温与江淮流域夏季降水的关系作功率谱分析和相关分析.指出秋冬季增暖的厄尔尼诺事件对应江淮流域夏季降水偏多, 春夏季开始发展的ENSO事件江淮流域夏季降水偏少.对两种在不同季节增暖的ENSO事件对应的异常流场特征及其对江淮流域降水的影响用1991年和1994年实例作对比分析.不同季节增暖的ENSO事件在太平洋热带地区环流调整的不同阶段可能是影响夏季风活动和东亚夏季天气气候异常的主要原因.Abstract: The power spectrum and correlation analysis is made of the relation between SST on the equatorial East Pacific and the West Pacific warm pool and summer precipitation over the Changjiang and Haihe River basins. The results indicate that summer precipitation over the Changjiang and Haihe River basins is greater when El Nino warming occurs in autumn or winter and less when ENSO develops in spring or summer. The comparison and analysis is conducted, by using two cases, of the characteristics of the abnormal stream fields of ENSO events warming in different seasons and the impact on the precipitation over the Changjiang and Haihe River basins. ENSO events warming in different seasons, corresponding to the certain stages of circulation adjustment over the tropic Pacific region, are the main cause of summer monsoon variation as well as weather and climate abnormality in summer in East Asia.
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[1] 黄荣辉, 孙凤英.热带西太平洋暖池的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常的影响.大气科学, 1994, 18 (2): 141~151. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK199402001.htm [2] 黄荣辉, 孙凤英.热带西太平洋暖池上空的对流活动对东亚夏季风季节内变化的影响.大气科学, 1994, 18 (4): 456~463. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK199404009.htm [3] Soman.M K, Slingo J.Sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to aspects of sea-surface tempereture an omalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean.Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc., 1997, 123: 309~336. doi: 10.1002/(ISSN)1477-870X [4] 陈兴芳, 宋文玲.近十年我国降水的QBO分析.应用气象学报, 1997, 8(4): 469~475. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/create_pdf.aspx?file_no=19970466&year_id=1997&quarter_id=4&falg=1 [5] 刘永强, 丁一汇.ENSO事件对我国季节降水和温度的影响.大气科学, 1995, 19 (2): 200~208. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK502.008.htm [6] 丁一汇.高等天气学.北京:气象出版社, 1991. [7] 丁一汇, 等.1991年江淮流域持续性特大暴雨研究.北京:气象出版社, 1993. [8] 周琴芳, 瞿盘茂.1994/1995年ENSO事件的诊断分析.气象, 1996, 22 (2): 18~23. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX602.003.htm -
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