基于长时段非线性影响分析的冬小麦产量预报

YIELD PREDICTION OF WINTER WHEAT BASED ON THE LONG-TERM NONLINEAR IMPACT ANALYSIS

摘要: 为提高冬小麦产量预报的准确性、稳定性, 通过气象产量与气象因子的膨化相关普查, 筛选出长时段、非线性因子组建预报方程, 收到了预期的效果.经4年的使用验证及与其他几种统计方法的比较, 该方法预报结果较为理想, 可用于基层台站的冬小麦产量预报.
- 非线性;
- 冬小麦;
- 产量预报
Abstract: In order to raise the prediction precision and stability of winter wheat yield prediction, a prediction model built from the selected long-term nonlinear predictors is developed through the expanding correlation analysis between meteorological yield and meteorological parameters, and it performs well. The preliminary theoretical analysis is also conducted. The application of four years and the comparison with the other statistical methods indicate that the predicted results using the method are desirable and applicable to the yield prediction at the bottom-level weather stations.
- Non-linearity;
- Winter wheat;
- Yield prediction

表 1 冬小麦趋势产量及气象产量的求取 (单位: kg/hm²)

表 2 长时段、非线性因子分析

表 3 冬小麦预报产量与实际产量的比较 (单位: kg/hm²)

表 4 各方法预报结果精度比较

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