设为首页
加入收藏
利用神经网络计算方法建立太平洋副高活动的预报模型
ESTABLISHMENT OF PREDICTION MODEL FOR THE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH USING NEURAL NETWORK CALCULATION METHOD
-
摘要: 基于赤道附近海温和副热带高压相关性的观测和研究事实, 利用人工神经网络的BP模型及其优化算法建立了近赤道海温同西太平洋副热带高压面积指数之间的预报模型.该模型可根据月平均的近赤道海温和副高面积指数的前期分布, 预报出其后3个月副高面积指数的基本走向和变化趋势.该模型具有较高的拟合精度, 其预报效果和预报时效具有一定的实用意义.Abstract: Based on the observational facts and correlative study results about the equatorial SST and Subtropical High, a prediction model between West-Pacific Subtropical High and equatorial SST is established by using the BP neural network model and its improved calculation method. By using this model, we can predict Subtropical High's basic changes and trend ahead of 3 months according to the early data of equatorial SST and subtropical high. This prediction model has better coupling precision. The forecasting accuracy and valid time of this model are meaningful in application.
-
Key words:
- Neural network;
- Prediction model;
- Pacific SST;
- Subtropical high
-
[1] 叶笃正, 曾庆存, 郭裕福.当代气候研究.北京:气象出版社, 1991. 164~177. [2] 金龙, 陈宁, 林振山.基于人工神经网络的集成预报方法研究和比较.气象学报, 1999, 57(2):198~207. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB902.007.htm [3] Fu C B, Zeng Z M. Ten years experioment on long range prediction of the Northwest Pacific high according to sea surface temperature anomalies. Proceedings of first WMO Conference on long-range forecasting, the practical problems and future prospects. WMO/TD. No.147, 1986. 77~86. [4] 符淙斌, 叶笃正.热带海洋对副热带高压长期变化的影响.科学通报, 1977, 21:313~317. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KXTB197707009.htm [5] 陈烈庭.北太平洋副热带高压与赤道东部海温的相互作用.大气科学, 1982, 6:148~156. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK198202004.htm [6] 藏恒范, 王绍武.赤道东太平洋水温对低纬大气环流的影响.海洋学报, 1984, 6(1):16~24. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SEAC198401002.htm [7] 龚道溢, 王绍武.南北半球副热带高压对赤道东太平洋海温变化的响应.海洋学报, 1998, 20(5):44~53. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SEAC805.004.htm [8] 黄荣辉, 李维京.夏季热带西太平洋上空的热源异常对东亚上空副热带高压的影响及物理机制.大气科学特刊, 1988, 107~116. [9] 吴国雄, 孟文.赤道印度洋-太平洋地区海气系统的齿轮式耦合和ENSO事件.大气科学, 1998, 22(4), 470~479. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK804.008.htm [10] 沈清, 胡德文, 时春. 神经网络应用技术. 北京: 国防科技大学出版社, 1993. 3~33, 77~86. [11] 施阳, 李俊. MATLAB语言工具箱——TOOLBOX实用指南.西安:西北工业大学出版社, 1998. 124~209. -
下载:
图(8)
计量
- 摘要浏览量: 3508
- HTML全文浏览量: 536
- PDF下载量: 1418
- 被引次数: 0
