CCM3大气环流模式月-季尺度预报初步试验

资助项目:

中国气象局“九五”重中之重课题“并行计算技术在数值预报中的应用”第2课题第2专题和国家高性能计算机基金批准号为981008

THE MONTHLY-AND SEASONAL-SCALE FORECAST EXPERIMENT USING NCAR CCM3 CLIMATE MODEL

摘要: 以1991和1994年NCEP再分析格点资料作初始场, 用NCAR气候模式CCM3进行了48次月、季预报, 针对500 hPa高度和中国降水资料对其预测能力进行了检验.结果表明, CCM3对月尺度的高度场的预报有一定的能力.对中国160站的降水距平进行月尺度和季节预报, 其准确程度可以和目前经验预报的水平相当.比较使用实际海温和用外推法预测的海温两种下边界条件所作的预报结果发现, 两者的效果差异不大.
- CCM3模式;
- 月季预测;
- 检验
Abstract: Using the NCAR CCM3 climate model, twenty-eight monthly and seasonal forecasts have been made for 1991 and 1994 with the NCEP reanalysis data as initial conditions. The prediction capacity of the model for the 500 hPa height and precipitation in China are examined. The result shows that the model has certain capability in predicting the height field in monthly scale. The ability of CCM3 in forecasting the monthly or seasonal rainfall in 160 stations of China is similar to the synoptic and experim ental methods. Comparison of the forecasts from extrapolated and observed SSTA shows that there is no much difference.
- CCM3 model;
- Monthly-Seasonal forecast;
- Validation

图 1 1991、1994年季尺度预报评分

(实心三角: 1991年海温距平外推的季尺度预报评分, 十字形: 1991年实际海温的季尺度预报评分, 空心圆: 1994年海温距平外推的季尺度预报评分, 空心菱形: 1994年实际海温的季尺度预报评分)

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表 1 1991年回报试验高度距平预报与观测值之间的相关系数

表 2 1991年回报试验 (采用距平外推海温和采用实际海温) 获得的降水月、季尺度预报评分及准确率

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