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利用混合海气耦合模式的气候异常预报试验
STUDIES OF ENSO-RELATED CLIMATE PREDICTION WITH A HYBRID OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL
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摘要: 用混合海气耦合模式长期积分的模拟结果, 分析了模式大气的年际变化性; 用1979~1994年间的“回报”个例, 探讨了该模式对ENSO引起的全球气候异常的预报。结果表明:模式能较好地再现与ENSO相关的全球大气环流的年际变化特征; 对预报而言, 模式较高的预报技巧主要分布在热带地区, 全球热带大气具有较稳定的1年左右的可预报时效; 基本上可预报中、高纬地区由ENSO引起的冬、夏季大气环流异常 (包括气温和降水), 超前时间可达9个月至1年。Abstract: With results of the long-term simulation of a hybrid-coupled model, the interannual variability of the model atmosphere is investigated. With the prediction cases during the period of 1979 to 1994, the predictive capability of the model for ENSO-caused global climate anomalies is discussed. Results indicate that the model can successfully reproduce the global ENSO-related atmospheric interannual variability. Higher predictive skill is mainly distributed over the tropics, where the predictable lead time is about one year. The ENSO-related winter and summer atmospheric circulation anomalies (including air temperature and precipitation) can be basically predicted with the lead time being up 9 to 12 months.
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图 1 冬季500 hPa高度场与同期赤道中东太平洋海温异常SVD第一模态的时间序列
(a, b) 及左奇异相关场分布 (c, d) (图a、c为45年模拟积分资料的分析结果, 图b、d为观测资料的分析结果 (17年), 阴影区表示超过各自95%的显著水平)
图 3 (a) 超前9个月的冬季500 hPa高度场距平预报技巧 (阴影区相关系数高于0.5) (b) 由NCEP再分析资料所得的1982/1983年冬季500 hPa高度场距平 (c) 超前9个月的1982/1983年冬季500 hPa高度场距平预报结果
图 5 (a) 超前1年的夏季500 hPa高度场距平预报技巧 (阴影区相关系数高于0.5) (b) 由NCEP再分析资料所得的1989年夏季500 hPa高度场距平 (c) 超前1年的1989年夏季500 hPa高度场距平预报结果
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