内蒙古干草原春季火险预报模型的研究

资助项目: 由内蒙古科委980125项目“内蒙古草地主要气象灾害减灾技术研究”课题资助

RESEARCH ON THE SPRING FIRE-RISK FORECASTING MODEL IN DRY GRASSLANDS IN INNER MONGOLIA

1.
Department of Urban and Environmental Science, Peking University, Beijing 100871
2.
Beijing Meteorological Bureau, Beijing 100089
3.
Inner Mongolia Meteorological Bureau, Hohhot 010051

摘要: 该文利用内蒙古锡盟地区1986~1997年的草原火灾及同期气象资料, 采用数学模拟的建模方法, 研制了该地区重点火险区域 (包括4个旗、市) 的春季草原火险天气预报模型。该预报模型综合考虑了火灾发生当日及前期气象要素对草原火险的影响, 试报检验结果可靠, 可用于当地的火险预报, 为防火部门制定防火决策提供依据和指导, 并可产生较大的社会经济效益。
- 内蒙古;
- 干草原;
- 火险天气;
- 预报模型
Abstract: Using grassland fire data and meteorological data of the same period from 1986 to 1997 in Xilin Gol Meng, the grassland spring fire-risk weather forecast model for the high fire-risk districts is presented. The forecast model synthetically considers the influences of meteorological components on grassland fire-risk at the time of fire-risk occurring and the days before. Trail forecast model results are reliable. The model can be used to local grassland forerisk forecasting, provide a basis and instruction for the fireproof departments in formulating the fireproof policies and bring about social, economic and ecological benefits.
- Inner Mongolia;
- Dry grassland;
- Fire-risk weather;
- Forecast model

图 1 草原火险等级预报计算流程图

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 各预报站点火险预报模型组

表 2 各预报站点降水订正系数 (K)

表 3 各预报站点火险等级查算表^*

表 4 锡盟地区草原火险等级表及火管理对策

表 5 各预报站点火险预报拟合检验^*

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