三峡工程建成后枯水期运行的气候风险研究

资助项目:

国家“九五”重中之重科技项目“我国短期气候预测系统的研究” 96-908-03-03

CLIMATIC RISK ANALYSIS OF THE THREE GORGES PROJECT OPERATION IN DRY SEASON

摘要: 通过蒙特卡罗试验, 探讨了三峡工程建成后枯水期运行风险的评估方法。以GCM模拟试验结果为未来气候情景, 随机模拟了三峡地区在该气候情景下枯水期月降水量分布; 建立了三峡地区月径流-降水模型和三峡水库调度模型; 初步分析了长江三峡工程建成后在当前气候背景和可能未来气候情景下的运行风险。结果表明, 三峡水库的运行对气候变化反应敏感, 春季和冬季的发电风险有明显改变。
- 气候变化;
- 蒙特卡罗试验;
- 水库调度;
- 风险分析
Abstract: Monte Carlo experiment is adapted to analyze the risks of the Three Gorges Reservoir operation in dry seasons. Monthly precipitation derived from general circulation models in the Three Gorges area is generated stochastically to produce the distribution under the future climate scenarios. In addition, a statistical runoff-rainfall model as well as a reservoir management model is set up. The risks of the Three Gorges Project operation under the present and the future climate scenarios are thus assessed. The result indicates that the operation of the Three Gorges Project is very sensitive to climate change, and the risks of electrical power supplying by the Three Gorges Reservoir in spring and winter will change obviously.
- Climate change;
- Monte Carlo experiment;
- Reservoir management;
- Risk analysis

图 1 三峡工程建成后运行风险的分析流程

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图 2 Г (α, β) 分布拟合的月降水量分布与实测分布比较 (2月)

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图 3 基准气候背景下三峡水库发电风险曲线

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图 4 未来气候情景下三峡水库发电风险曲线

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表 1 枯水期月平均降水量Г (α, β) 分布拟合的Копмого горов检验 (n=48)

表 2 未来气候情景下三峡地区月平均降水量Г (α, β) 分布拟合参数

表 3 混合同余法产生的随机数序列相关系数

表 4 月降水量随机抽样值与实测值统计特征对比

表 5 三峡水库枯水期运行风险指标

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