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国家气象中心集合数值预报业务系统的发展及应用
THE DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF THE OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM AT NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER
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摘要: 介绍集合数值预报的基本概念，简要回顾国家气象中心的集合数值预报系统的开发过程，并概述了国家气象中心现有的中期集合数值预报业务系统的组成、集合数值预报产品的解释与应用、集合数值预报的未来发展趋势。Abstract: The basic concepts of the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) are addressed. A brief review is given on the development and implementation of the operational EPS at National Meteorological Center (NMC): the main components and their functions of the EPS/NMC, the interpretation of the EPS’ products and the routine uses in the Weather Forecast Offices (WFO). The future development issues of the EPS, the national-wide uses of the EPS products in the provincial WFO over China are discussed.
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图 2 国家气象中心第一代中期集合数值预报试验系统T63L16/ LAF 第1~5 天
(第1 候)预报平均北半球500 hPa 距平相关系数(1996 年9 月下旬~11 月，8 次个例过程)
图 3 国家气象中心第一代中期集合数值预报试验系统T63L16/ LAF 第6~10 天
(第2 候)预报平均北半球500 hPa 距平相关系数(1996 年9 月下旬~11 月，8 次个例过程)
图 6 集合数值预报(平均)和控制预报北半球500 hPa 高度场检验:均方根误差(a)距平相关系数(b)
(SV 为奇异量的预报，LAF 为时间滞后的预报，CRL 为控制预报)
表 1 ECMWF 各业务系统所需计算机资源比较
表 2 并行效率表
表 3 ECMWF、美国和加拿大等国集合预报业务系统
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