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国家气象中心集合数值预报业务系统的发展及应用

李泽椿 陈德辉

李泽椿, 陈德辉. 国家气象中心集合数值预报业务系统的发展及应用. 应用气象学报, 2002, 13(1): 1-15..
引用本文: 李泽椿, 陈德辉. 国家气象中心集合数值预报业务系统的发展及应用. 应用气象学报, 2002, 13(1): 1-15.
Li Zechun, Chen Dehui. The development and application of the operational ensemble prediction system at National Meteorological Center. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 1-15.
Citation: Li Zechun, Chen Dehui. The development and application of the operational ensemble prediction system at National Meteorological Center. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 1-15.

国家气象中心集合数值预报业务系统的发展及应用

资助项目: 

“863”项目“基于神威巨型计算机的集合数值预报系统研究” ZD11030202

THE DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF THE OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM AT NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER

  • 摘要: 介绍集合数值预报的基本概念,简要回顾国家气象中心的集合数值预报系统的开发过程,并概述了国家气象中心现有的中期集合数值预报业务系统的组成、集合数值预报产品的解释与应用、集合数值预报的未来发展趋势。
  • 图  1  利用时间滞后方法生成集合预报模式初值

    (虚线表示“过去” 时刻,生成初值;实线表示“未来” 时刻,集合预报)

    图  2  国家气象中心第一代中期集合数值预报试验系统T63L16/ LAF 第1~5 天

    (第1 候)预报平均北半球500 hPa 距平相关系数(1996 年9 月下旬~11 月,8 次个例过程)

    图  3  国家气象中心第一代中期集合数值预报试验系统T63L16/ LAF 第6~10 天

    (第2 候)预报平均北半球500 hPa 距平相关系数(1996 年9 月下旬~11 月,8 次个例过程)

    图  4  神威集合预报系统运行流程结构图

    图  5  2000 年4~10 月逐日西风指数的分析与5 天集合预报比较

    图  6  集合数值预报(平均)和控制预报北半球500 hPa 高度场检验:均方根误差(a)距平相关系数(b)

    (SV 为奇异量的预报,LAF 为时间滞后的预报,CRL 为控制预报)

    图  7  500 hPa 高度场(粗实线表示降雨区域)

    (a)2000 年6 月1 日实况,(b)4 天集合预报,(c)4 天业务预报,(d)5 天集合预报

    表  1  ECMWF 各业务系统所需计算机资源比较

    表  2  并行效率表

    表  3  ECMWF、美国和加拿大等国集合预报业务系统

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2001-05-25
  • 修回日期:  2001-06-28
  • 刊出日期:  2002-02-28

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