国家气象中心集合数值预报检验评价
THE VERIFICATION FOR ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM OF NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER
-
摘要: 对国家气象中心的奇异向量法初值扰动的 32 个成员的集合预报, 利用 2000 年 5 月到 10 月的实况资料进行了 T alagrand 概率分布、离散度、Brier 评分(BS)、Brier 技巧评分(BSS)、 命中率以及空报率的统计检验。 并且对奇异向量法和时间滞后法的两种集合预报结果也进行了比较分析。Abstract: The various diagnostics, e. g. , Talagrand probability distrbution, spread, Brier score (BS), Brier Skill score (BSS), hit rate and false alarm rate are applied to the Ensemble Prediction System (the singular vector version, 32 members) at the National Meteorological Center, Beijing, China from June to October in 2000. The comparison also is conducted between Singular Vector (SV) and Lagged Averaging Forecast (LAF) methods.
-
Key words:
- mble prediction;
- Verification;
- Comparison
-
表 1 H500各预报时效(h)平均离散度
表 2 双态分类联列表
表 3 降水观测统计(2000 年7 月16 日)
表 4 2000 年7 月16 日降水预报命中率和假警报率
-
[1] Talagrand O, Vautard R. Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems. Workshop on Predictability ECMWF, 1997-10. [2] Buizza, Palmer T N. Impact of ensemble size on ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1998, 126(9):2503-2518. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<2503:IOESOE>2.0.CO;2 [3] Stanski H R, Wilson L J, Burrows W R. Survey of common verification methods in meteorology. WMO/TD-No. 358, 1989.