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神威中期集合数值预报产品的业务应用
THE OPERATIONAL APPLICATION OF THE SHENWEI MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION PRODUCTS
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摘要: 目前神威中期集合数值预报产品包括 500 hPa 集合平均预报图、850 hPa 温度距平概率分布图、不同降水级别的降水概率分布图。 其中 500 hPa 集合平均预报场对欧亚大型环流形势演变趋势、春季风沙天气、降水天气过程以及夏季副热带高压变化趋势等的预报中得到应用, 850 hPa 温度距平概率分布图对未来气温变化趋势以及冷空气过程的预报有很好的使用价值, 而降水概率分布图可供预报员在做降水预报时参考。Abstract: The products issued by the Shenwei Medium-range Ensemble Prediction System include the ensemble mean of 500 hPa height fields, the probabilities of 850 hPa temperature anomalies, and probabilities of rainfall. The ensemble-mean of 500 hPa height fields has been used in the forecast of the Eurasia circulation pattern, the sandstorm in spring, the rain process, and the change tendency of the subtropical high in summer. The probabilities of 850 hPa temperature anomalies are very useful in the forecast of temperature change tendency and cold air processes. The probabilities of rainfall have been used by forecasters directly.
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Key words:
- Ensemble prediction;
- Ensemble mean;
- Probability
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图 1 2000 年4 月~2001 年2 月逐日亚洲(65°~155°E 45°~65°N)西风指数(实线)及其120 h 集合预报平均(虚线)a:2000 年4~8 月，b:2000 年9 月~2001 年2 月
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