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黄河上中游径流对气候变化的敏感性分析
ANALYSIS ON THE SENSITIVITY OF RUNOFF IN YELLOW RIVER TO CLIMATE CHANGE
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摘要: 利用月水文模型, 采取假定气候方案, 分析了黄河上中游径流对气候变化的敏感性。 结果表明, 径流对降水变化的响应敏感, 对气温变化的响应相对较弱, 如气温不变, 降水增加 10 %时, 径流量约增加 17%。 如降水不变, 气温升高 1 ℃, 则径流减少 5 %左右。 在区域上分布, 中游较上游对气候变化更为敏感。Abstract: Effects of climate change on runoff in Yellow River are studied with hypothetical scenarios using the monthly hydrological model. The results show that runoff is less sensitive to temperature change but more sensitive to precipitation change, and runoff in the middle reaches is more sensitive to climate change than that in upper reaches. While temperature increases 1℃, runoff in Yellow River decreases 5%; while precipitation changes 10%, runoff changes about 17%.
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Key words:
- Yellow River Runoff;
- Climate;
- Sensitivity;
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表 1 黄河流域各产流区模型参数及模拟效果
表 2 黄河上中游11 站蒸发能力在不同升温情况下的变化率
表 3 黄河上中游主要产流区不同气候情景下径流量的变化率
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