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上海热浪与健康监测预警系统
Shanghai Heat Wave/Health Warning System
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摘要: 用1989～1998年上海逐日4次气象观测资料，应用美国特拉华大学的SSC天气分类方法确定逐日天气类型，形成了10年逐日天气类型日历。并通过天气类型与死亡率的对比分析，确定MT+类型是上海地区形成热浪的“侵人型”气团，是具有最高死亡率的天气类型。采用逐步回归方法建立了MT+类型下因受热浪侵袭而超正常死亡数的回归方程。在此基础上建立了上海热浪与健康监测预警系统。通过1999年气象和死亡实况资料检验，系统对热浪及因此引起的死亡具有较好的监测和预警效果。Abstract: The Shanghai heat wave/health warning system is introduced. The Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) is used as the methodology for determination of the air mass classification using the daily meteorological observation data (1989–1998) in the system, and the ten-year-long air mass calendars is established. Through the comparative analysis of the daily air masses and their corresponding mortality, the MT+-pattern air mass is identified as the “offensive” air mass, which is related with the high mortality in heat wave periods in Shanghai. The equation was also produced for the prediction of excessive death by step-wise regression. The system test with actual meteorological data and mortality data in 1999 indicates that the Shanghai Heat/Health warning system has the good capability of warning excessive heat-related deaths .
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Key words:
- Heat wave;
- Watch and warning;
- Spatial synoptic classification;
- Health
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表 1 气团类型及其主要特征
表 2 上海各月不同气团类型出现频率(1989～ 1998 年)
表 3 上海夏季各气团类型气象要素特征
表 4 天气类型与人群死亡情况
表 5 上海夏季高死亡日各天气类型出现的频数、频率(1989～ 1998 年)
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[1] Seiichi Nakai, Toshiyuki Itoh, Taketoshi Morimoto. Deaths from heat-stroke in Japan:1968-1994. Int. J. Biometeor., 1999, 43(2):124～127. [2] Smoyer K E. A comparative analysis of heat waves and associated mortality in St. Louis, Missouri-1980 and 1995. Int. J. Biometeor., 1998, 42(1): 44～50. doi: 10.1007/s004840050082 [3] Kalkstein L S, Jamason P F, Greene J S, et al. The Philadelphia hot weather-health watch/warning system: development and application, Summer 1995. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1996, 77(7): 1519～1528. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<1519:TPHWHW>2.0.CO;2 [4] Kalkstein L S. Activities with study group 6 of the international society of biometeorology. Int. J. Biometeor., 1998, 42(1):8～9. doi: 10.1007/s004840050076 [5] Kalkstein L S, Nichols M C, Barthel C D, et al. A new spatial synoptic classification: Application to air mass analysis. International Journal of Climatology, 1996,16: 983～1004. doi: 10.1002/(ISSN)1097-0088 [6] Kalkstein L S, Valimont K M. An evaluation of summer discomfort in the United States using a relative climatological Index. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1986, 67(7): 842～848. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1986)067<0842:AEOSDI>2.0.CO;2 -
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