集合数值预报发展与研究进展

陈静; 陈德辉; 颜宏

集合数值预报发展与研究进展

1.
中国气象科学研究院，北京 100081
2.
中国气象局，北京 100081

资助项目:

由国家自然科学基金项目资助编号40171653

计量
- 摘要浏览量: 4195
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2000-12-27
- 修回日期: 2001-04-28
- 刊出日期: 2002-08-31

A BRIEF REVIEWON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

1.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
2.
China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081

摘要

摘要: 较系统地概述了集合预报系统发展过程与集合预报中的主要研究问题，总结了集合预报概念、系统组成、初始扰动理论技术和产品解释与应用原理的研究成果，简单分析了近年来集合预报中的一些研究热点，介绍了先进国家集合预报的发展计划。
- 集合预报系统;
- 初始扰动;
- 解释应用;
- 研究进展
Abstract: The main issues of the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) are presented, such as ensemble prediction concepts, the structure of an EPS, approaches for generating initial perturbation, interpretation and application schemes of EPS outputs. The recent advancements and progresses of the operational implementation and research results of EPS are systematically summarized, as well as the projects of EPS development in the developed countries.
- Ensemble prediction system;
- Initial perturbation;
- Interpretation and application;

HTML全文

图 1 集合预报系统结构图

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图 2 2月13日预报的2月13~18日热带气旋路径图

(引自文献[18]，小圆表示集合成员的预报)

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图 3 管形聚类法示意

(引自文献[17]，中央类位于集合平均附近，用距集合平均极端最远的成员位置定义管端和管形类别)

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图 4 ECMWF T L255集合预报模式从23日积分到26日的42 h集合预报海平面气压场邮票图

(引自文献[18]，深色区的气压低于980 hPa，第一排从左向右分别是T L159，T L319确定性预报和实况图，第2至第5排是50个集合成员预报结果)

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表 1 ECMWF、美国和加拿大等国集合预报业务系统

表 2 初始扰动产生方法

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