实时海温对动力延伸（月）预报影响的数值试验研究

资助项目: 国家“九五”重点科技项目:“我国短期气候预测系统的研究”资助

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTON EFFECTS OF REAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON DYNAMIC EXTENDED (MONTHLY)FORECASTING

摘要: 对1992年7月10日、19日和1997年7月1日3个个例，进行了实时海温和气候海温的对比数值试验，研究实时海温对月尺度数值预报的影响。个例试验结果表明，实时海温对10天以下的数值预报影响较小，但对月时间尺度的数值预报的影响则十分明显，实时海温对大气的强迫作用同模式大气的初值和预报模式包含的物理过程以及海温异常的强度有关。
- 动力延伸（月）预报;
- 实时海温;
- 数值试验
Abstract: The comparative numerical experiments with real and climatic sea surface temperature (SST) for three cases are performed, by using the global spectral model. These cases are on July 10, July 19, 1992 and July 1, 1997, respectively. The effects of real SSTs on the monthly dynamic extended forecast are investigated by the different circulation changes in the general circulation model generated with real and climatic SSTs. The results of numerical experiments show that the effect of real SST on predictions less than 10 days is not obvious, but the impact on monthly forecasts is obvious. The forcing effect of real SST on the monthly forecasts is complex and may be related to the initial conditions of numerical integration, the various physical processes included in the forecast model, and the strength of SST anomalies.
- Monthly dynamic extended forecast;
- Real sea surface temperature;
- Numerical experiment

图 1 7 月平均全球海温距平分布(℃)(a)1992 年,(b)1997 年

(等值线间隔为0.5 ℃)

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图 2 全球平均24 h 时降水量改变率(R₂-R₁)/R₁

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图 3 全球整层平均温度改变量(方案2-方案1)

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图 4 北半球1-N 天平均预报高度场距平相关系数的变化

(a)500 hPa,(b)700 hPa(实线:方案2,虚线:方案1)

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图 5 北半球1-N 天平均预报高度场距平相关系数的变化

(a)500 hPa,(b)700 hPa (实线:方案4,虚线:方案3)

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图 6 全球1~N 天平均500 hPa 高度场距平相关系数的变化

(点线:方案5,实线:方案2,虚线:方案1)

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表 1 试验方案

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