20世纪80~90年代我国气候增暖进程的统计事实
Climatic Warming Process During 1980s—1990s in China
-
摘要: 运用统计诊断方法分析了近50年来我国年平均及四季的气温变化特征,重点研究了20世纪90年代和80年代气温变化的主要差异及其增暖进程。结果表明,我国年平均气温是呈上升趋势的,但80年代以前年代际变化并不明显, 升温幅度不大。我国气候增暖始于20世纪80年代后期,90年代增暖加速,急剧增暖的主要原因是长江流域以南地区经历了由偏冷向偏暖的趋势转变。我国四季气温变化趋势在80~90年代增暖的进程中存在明显差异:其中冬季增暖开始时间最早、幅度最大、持续时间最长;90年代我国气候增暖急剧加速,其原因除了冬季气温持续攀升作用外,春、夏、秋季气温上升, 特别是春、夏季增暖幅度的加大增暖区域的显著扩展也起到很重要的作用。Abstract: The changes in annual, winter, spring, summer and autumn air temperatures over China in the last 50 years are analyzed through statistical diagnosis and the focus of the study is put on the difference of change and warming process between 1990s and 1980s. The results show that the annual temperature anomaly has an increasing trend in the last 50 years, but the inter-decadal change in annual temperature is not remarkable before 1990. The mean temperature from 1991 to 2000 is much higher than those in the other decades. Their 10-year means are – 0.12oC from 1951 to 1960, – 0.10oC from 1961 to 1970, – 0.04oC from 1971 to 1980, 0.14oC from 1981 to 1990, 0.57oC from 1991 to 2000, respectively. The difference between the mean from 1991 to 2000 and the mean from 1981 to 1990 is of statistical significance with a confidence level of α=0.05. The linear trend coefficient of the mean temperature over China is only 0.008oC per year before 1990, but 0.02oC per year from 1991 to 2000. The beginning of warning was at the end of the 1980s and the warming speeded up in the 1990s in China, during which period a transition from clod to warm occurred in the south of the Changjiang River Valley. The change trend of temperature and the warming processes is the 1980s and 1990s were very different for four seasons. In winter, the beginning of warming was the earliest with the strongest argument and the longest duration. The main contribution to the steep warming during the 1990s comes from the long-lasting higher temperature in winter and the temperature rising in spring, summer, autumn, especially the ever-increasing warming argument and the ever-expanding warming areas in spring and summer. Only 59% and 31% of stations over China have an increasing trend in spring and summer before 1990, but 83% and 50% from 1991 to 2000.
-
Key words:
- Temperature change;
- Steep warming;
- Statistical test
-
表 1 1951~2000年每两个10年段平均值的u统计量值
表 2 1951~2000年每两个10年段我国四季温度变化值u统计结果
表 3 1951~1990年和1951~2000年每两个时段四季气温呈上升趋势的站数及其百分率
-
[1] Hansen J, Ruedy R, Glascoe J, et al. GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res., 1999, 104: 30997~31022. [2] 曾昭美,严中伟. 本世纪全球增暖的显著性分析. 应用气象学报,1999,10(增刊):23~33. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YYQX9S1.003.htm [3] 魏凤英,曹鸿兴. 中国、北半球和全球的气温突变分析及其趋势预测研究. 大气科学,1995,19(2):140~148. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK502.001.htm [4] 王绍武. 近百年气候变化与变率的诊断研究. 气象学报,1994,52(3):261~273. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB403.001.htm [5] 王绍武, 叶瑾琳, 龚道溢. 近百年中国气温序列的建立. 应用气象学报,1998,9(4):392-401. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19980459&flag=1 [6] 王绍武. 现代气候学研究进展. 北京:气象出版社,2001. 80~95. [7] 陈隆勋,朱文琴,王文,等. 中国近45年来气候变化的研究. 气象学报,1998,56(3): 257~271. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB803.000.htm [8] 唐国利. 我国气温标准序列的趋势变化分析. 见:85-913项目02课题论文编委会编著. 气候变化规律及其数值模拟研究论文(第一集). 北京:气象出版社,1996. 196~199. [9] 龚道溢, 王绍武. 1998年:近百年来中国最暖的一年. 气象,1999,25(8): 1~3. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX908.000.htm [10] 魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术. 北京:气象出版社,1999. 43~47.