北方降水性层状云人工增雨潜力区的逐步判别研究
STEPWISE DISCRIMINATION ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL AREAS FOR RAIN ENHANCEMENT IN STRATIFORM CLOUDS IN NORTH CHINA
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摘要:
利用1991~1999年9年间飞机人工增雨外场试验期间长春市气象局07:00或19:00(北京时,下同) 的701测风雷达和吉林省气象台713数字化雷达观测资料,依据穿云实际宏观观测资料将增雨潜力区分为:Ⅰ级(较大)和Ⅱ级(较小)。然后应用逐步判别方法求得500 hPa风速的南风分量、回波顶高度、负温层回波厚度/正温层回波厚度、0℃层高度/回波顶高共4个气象因子参加的两组判别函数S1、S2。再用Microsoft VB6.0可视化编程语言,以作业前最近时次探空报中500 hPa风向风速和雷达回波参数为基础将全省划分成9个催化作业区域,根据云系主体回波所在区域,对预催化或正在催化的层状云系进行自动解报、逐步判别方程计算和增雨潜力的自动显示。
Abstract:By means of the data of the 701 windfinding radar at Stations 07:00 and 19:00 of Changchun Meteorological Office and the 713 digital radar from Meteorological Bureau of Jilin Province in the past nine years, the potential areas of rain enhancement are classified into two categories: Class I (larger) and Class II (smaller), according to the data from cross-cloud observation. Two groups of discrimination functions S1, S2, are given, which include four meteorological factors obtained by using stepwise discrimination analysis method: 500 hPa south wind component, height of echo top, (negative temperature layer echo depth)/ (positive temperature layer echo depth) and (height of 0oC layer)/(height of echo top). Then, by using Microsoft VB6.0, Jinlin Province is divided into nine seeding operation areas according to radar echo parameters and 500 hPa wind from the near-time radiosonde observation; the automatic decoding and the rain enhancement potential calculation and automatic display for pre-seeding and stratifrom clouds are conducted.
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表 1 候选与预选因子
表 2 拟合率计算
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[1] 汪学林, 谷淑芳, 于勇, 等.两次江淮气旋的云雨特征及其人工播云效果的综合分析应用.气象学报, 2001, 12(增刊):48-57. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YYQX2001S1006.htm [2] 李永振, 李茂仑, 崔莲.利用雷达回波参数统计特征评定人工增雨效果.吉林气象, 2001, (3). http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JLQX200103009.htm [3] 丁士晟.多元分析方法及其应用.长春:吉林人民出版社, 1981.
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