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基于WCSODS的小麦渍害模型及其在灾害预警上的应用
A WCSODS-BASED MODEL FOR SIMULATINGWET DAMAGE FOR WINTER WHEAT IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES OF THE YANGTSE RIVER
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摘要: 在WCSODS（小麦模拟优化决策系统）中增加了过量土壤水对小麦光合作用、干物质分配、叶片衰老等影响模块，实现了渍害条件下对冬小麦生长和产量的模拟。用试验资料和区域统计单产对模型进行了检验，结果表明：模拟误差在10%以内。灵敏度分析的结果亦表明：随着渍水持续天数的增加，小麦渍害加重，10 d渍水对产量影响不大，而30 d渍水可造成减产7%~32%；当渍水天数相同时，以孕穗期的渍害对产量影响最大；灌浆期、拔节期次之，冬前分蘖期的影响较小。这与当地小麦专家的看法相一致，说明小麦渍害模型具有一定的合理性。利用本模型和南京、南通两地的历史气象和产量资料，对大面积小麦平均单产进行了试预报，结果基本令人满意。Abstract: The correction models of the effect of excess soil water on photosynthetic production, partition of dry matter and green leaf senescence are introduced into the WCSODS to simulate the impacts of soil waterlogging on wheat growth. The modules are validated with experimental data and regional statistical yields, and the results show that the simulated errors are less than 10%. The sensitivity analysis also shows that the wet damage to yield increases gradually with the increasing waterlogging duration. Ten-day waterlogging has little effect on yields, but when the waterlogging duration reaches 30 days, yields reduce 7% to 32%. For the same waterlogging duration, the injury at the booting stage is the greatest, less at filling stage and elongation stage, and the least at tillering stage. These results are in accordance with the opinions of local wheat experts. The early warning of wet damage is also conducted and tested by using the model and the daily meteorological and yield data, and the results are reasonable.
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Key words:
- Waterlogging;
- Winter wheat;
- Growth simulation;
- WCSODS;
- Early warning
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表 1 不同发育阶段绿叶日相对衰老速率
表 2 模拟产量与实测产量比较
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