基于东北玉米区域动力模型的低温冷害预报应用研究
STUDY OF LOW TEMPERATURE DAMAGE PREDICTION APPLICATIONS IN EN, CHINA BASED ON A SCALING-UP MAIZE DYNAMIC MODEL
-
摘要: 在田间试验资料基础上,采用改进的发育模型和分区作物参数,结合前人有关研究成果建立了东北玉米区域动力模型,并利用模型模拟了12站40年 (1961~2000年) 玉米生长发育过程。确定抽雄期延迟天数为低温冷害指标,分析了历史低温冷害年及减产情况。模拟了典型冷害年和40年气候平均的0.25°×0.25°网格点玉米生长发育过程, 探讨了与区域气候模式结合进行低温冷害预报的方法。主要结论有:①玉米发育模型能够较好地模拟玉米发育期和发育期对低温冷害的响应,以抽雄期延迟天数为冷害指标评估的历史冷害发生状况基本符合历史实况。②模型有一定的模拟玉米生长量对低温冷害响应的能力,但还需要更多的试验数据校正品种参数,完善模型。③利用GIS技术,结合区域化的作物参数运行区域作物模型,是作物模型区域化应用的一种解决方案。④东北玉米区域动力模型解释性好,根据确定的害指标,以区域气候模式输出结果驱动玉米模型可以模拟和预测低温冷害,是农业气象灾害预测预报的一个有益的尝试。Abstract: A scaling-up maize dynamic model in EN, China is established, including an improved heat unit development model and crop parameters in the certain regions based on the maize field experiments data and predecessors' studies on crop simulation models. The development and growth processes are simulated for 12 stations using daily weather data for 40 years (1961—2000). The index for low temperature damage is defined by the days of tasseling postponed. The years with low temperature damage and the related reduction of yield are analyzed using the index. The development and growth processes in the grids with 0.25o×0.25o are simulated for the year with typical low temperature damage and for mean climate condition in 40 years. The experiment on prediction method of low temperature damage using maize simulation model combined with regional climate model is carried out. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The model of development stage well simulates maize development stages and the response of development stages to low temperature damage. Using the index for low temperature damage defined by the days of tasseling postponed, the degree of low temperature damage is estimated. The results are very well and are conformed by historical cases. (2) The model can basically simulate responses of maize biomass to low temperature damage; but the parameters of cultivar should be calibrated by more measured experiment data, and the model will be modified further. (3) It is a resolution to scaling-up application of crop models to determine the crop parameters in these areas and to apply GIS. (4) The method for scaling-up maize dynamic model is of more mechanism and explanatory. Running maize model, according to low temperature damage index and output of regional climate models, it is easily to simulate and predict occurrence degree of low temperature damage.
-
Key words:
- Maize;
- North East China;
- Low temperature damage;
- Scaling-up
-
表 1 中、晚熟品种各发育阶段所需的新热量单位累积值
表 2 光饱和时CO2同化速率的白天温度订正系数①
表 3 12个站点抽雄期距平值 (d) 频率分布统计
表 4 12个站点低温冷害年统计
-
[1] 佟屏亚.中国玉米科技史.北京:中国农业科技出版社, 2000.13-17. [2] 孙玉亭, 赵宏凯.玉米冷害及冷害指标鉴定.农业气象, 1980, 1. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGNY198001007.htm [3] 毛飞, 高素华, 庄立伟.近40年东北地区低温冷害发生规律的研究.见:王春乙, 郭建平主编.农作物低温冷害综合防御技术研究.北京:气象出版社, 1999.17-25. [4] 王春乙, 毛飞.东北地区低温冷害的分布特征.见:王春乙, 郭建平主编.农作物低温冷害综合防御技术研究.北京:气象出版社, 1999. 9-15. [5] 刘玉瑛, 马树庆, 袭祝香.吉林省80年代以来热量资源的地理分布及作物品种布局.见:王春乙, 郭建平主编.农作物低温冷害综合防御技术研究.北京:气象出版社, 1999.90-95. [6] 王书裕.作物冷害的研究.北京:气象出版社, 1995.20-22. [7] 高素华, 郭建平, 张国民, 等.低温对玉米生理过程的影响.见:王春乙, 郭建平主编.农作物低温冷害综合防御技术研究.北京:气象出版社, 1999.180-185. [8] 周立宏, 刘新安, 周育慧.东北地区低温冷害年的环流特征及预测, 沈阳农业大学学报, 2001, 32(1):22-25. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYNY200101004.htm [9] Hansen J W, Jones J W. Scaling-up crop models for climate prediction application. In: Sivakumar M V K. Eds. Climate Prediction and Agriculture. Proceedings of the STARAT/WMO International Workshop held in Geneva, Switzerland, 27-29 September 1999.Washington DC, USA: International START Secretariat. 2000.77-117. [10] 庄立伟, 王石立.东北地区逐日气象要素的空间插值研究.应用气象学报, 2003, 14(5):605-615 http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20030575&flag=1 [11] 丁一汇, 孙永甫, 颜宏, 等.高分辨率区域气候模式的改进及其在东亚持续暴雨事件模拟试验中的应用.国家"九五"重中之重96-908科技项目 < 我国短期气候预测系统的研究 > 之二, 短期气候预测业务动力模式的研制.北京:气象出版社, 217-231. [12] 刘汉中.普通农业气象学.北京:北京农业大学出版社, 1990. [13] 高亮之, 金之庆, 等.水稻钟模型--水稻发育动态的计算机模型.中国农业气象, 1989, 10(3):3-10. [14] Supit I. Hooijer A A, van Diepen C A. System Description the WOFOST 6.0 Crop Simulation Model Implemented in CGMS. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 1994. [15] 张银锁. 基于作物生长模拟模型的夏玉米可持续生产管理系统分析: [博士论文]. 北京: 中国农业大学, 2001. [16] 孙玉亭, 孙孟梅.温度对玉米生长和发育综合影响的评价模型.资源科学, 1999, 21(1):63-70. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HLJQ803.004.htm [17] 刘玉瑛, 袭祝香, 马树庆.东北地区玉米播期预报方法及应用.见:王春乙, 郭建平主编.农作物低温冷害综合防御技术研究.北京:气象出版社, 1999.138-142. [18] Penning de Vires F W T, Jansen D M, ten Berge H F M, et al. 几种一年生作物的生态生理过程模拟. 朱德峰等译. 北京: 中国农业科技出版社, 1991. [19] 冯佩芝, 李翠金, 李小泉, 等.中国主要气象灾害分析1951-1980.北京:气象出版社, 1985.