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卫星资料反演湿度场改变模式初值对降水预报的影响
THE INFLUENCE OF INITIAL CONDITION ADJUSTMENT USING SATELLITE-DERIVED HUMIDITY ON PRECIPITATION FORECASTING
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摘要: 为探讨初始场资料在数值预报中的重要性，用高分辨率卫星TBB资料反演的云内湿度场来改进模式初值，初步研究分析了改进的模式初值对降水预报的影响。以湿绝热过程的变态方程为积分方程，由卫星TBB资料反演出大气中各等压面层湿度场。通过对比分析反演的湿度场与客观分析 (T106) 的水汽场，发现两者有较大区别，前者更加合理地反映出降水区域高空湿度场的分布。利用中尺度模式MM5将有限区域的常规探空资料和非常规资料进行同化，并对暴雨个例进行预报对比试验。不同初值的对比试验表明，在模式的初始场中引入卫星资料反演的湿度场后，明显地改善了模式降水预报的强度和落区，比仅使用常规探空资料更接近于实况。Abstract: To improve the accuracy of model initial field, a preliminary analysis of the impact of initial condition adjustment using satellite-derived humidity on the precipitation forecasting is carried out. Taking the wet-adiabatic equation as integral equation, the humidity field on each standard isobaric surface derived from satellite TBB-data is used to improve the model initial conditions. An inter-comparison study is carried on between the satellite-derived humidity and T106 objective analyzed humidity. It is found that there is a big difference between the model-outputs driven by two different humidity fields. The simulation results driven by satellite-derived humidity depict the upper air humidity distribution above the precipitation region very well. Thus, a data assimilation technique based on the meso-scale model MM5 is performed to assimilate the conventional observation data and the high-resolution satellite-derived data. A rainstorm case is simulated in order to compare the precipitation forecast capability with different initial fields. The experiments show that when the satellite-derived humidity is assimilated into the initial condition, both the intensity and the area of simulated precipitation are more close to the measured precipitation as compared with those only using the conventional observations.
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Key words:
- Satellite data;
- Derived humidity;
- MM5;
- Initial field;
- Control experiment
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