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甘肃沙尘暴短期、短时业务化预报方法研究
SHORT-TERM SAND-DUST STORM FORECASTING METHOD RESEARCH IN GANSU PROVINCE
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摘要: 利用1955~2002年甘肃省80个站的观测资料，对发生在甘肃境内的64个强或特强沙尘暴个例逐个进行了天气气候分析，总结了甘肃沙尘暴天气气候特点，沙尘暴爆发的天气类型，移动路径。得出沙尘暴短期和临近预报的着眼点，建立了甘肃沙尘暴短期预报概念模型。通过用计算机语言和模块化设计方案，成功设计了中国西北地区沙尘暴监测预警人机交互预报平台，实现了沙尘暴监测预警预报业务化。Abstract: According to the observational data from 1955 to 2002 at 80 stations in Gansu Province, 64 examples of stronger sand-dust storm occurring in the province are analyzed. Their climate, weather circumstances, influential system, influential range, the cold air source, cloudy features, and conception diagnosis are studied. The climate characteristics, the weather patterns and the moving tracks of sandstorm in Gansu Province are summarized. The short-term forecasting methods of sand-dust storm are built, and the short-term forecasting conception model is given. Applying the computer language and model design method, the sand-dust storm monitoring and forecasting platform is successfully built to achieve the practical need of sand-dust storm monitoring and forecasting.
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表 1 甘肃沙尘暴天气分型
表 2 天气系统与移动路径统计结果
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[1] 王式功, 董光荣, 杨德保, 等.中国北方地区沙尘暴变化趋势初探.自然灾害学报, 1996, 5(2): 86~94. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZRZH602.010.htm [2] 徐启运, 胡敬松.我国西北地区沙尘暴天气时空分布特征.应用气象学报, 1996, 7(4): 479~482. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19960473&flag=1 [3] 杨东贞, 房秀梅, 李兴生.我国北方沙尘暴变化趋势的分析.应用气象学报, 1998, 9(3): 352~358. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19980350&flag=1 [4] "西北干旱区沙尘暴预警服务系统研究"课题组.我国西北地区沙尘暴分析.北京:气象出版社, 2002. 134. [5] 陈晓光, 张存杰, 董安祥, 等. 甘肃沙尘暴过程的划分和研究. 高原气象, 待发表. -
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