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西北地区玉米产量动态业务预报方法探讨
METHOD RESEARCH FOR OPERATIONAL DYNAMIC FORECASTING OF MAIZE YIELD IN NORTH-WESTOF CHINA
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摘要: 通过分析西北地区气候生产力与玉米产量的关系、土壤水分与降水量以及土壤水分与降水量和土壤初始含水量之和的关系表明：西北地区降水气候生产力与玉米产量、土壤水分与降水量和土壤初始含水量之和有着显著的相关性。在此基础上，利用玉米生长季内的降水量和播种期的土壤水分含量对Miami降水模型进行了改进，应用改进后的Miami降水模型开展以月为时间步长的玉米产量动态趋势预报，具有较为理想的业务服务效果。同时，利用此方法评价西北地区降水对玉米生长发育和产量形成的影响也非常适用。但是，由于此方法没有考虑灌溉水的作用，故不适用于灌溉农区。Abstract: The study of the relationship between climatic productivity and maize yield, and the relationship between soil water content and precipitation, and the relationship between soil water content and the sum of precipitation and initial soil water content in the Northwest China is showed that the correlation between climatic productivity of precipitation and maize yield, and the correlation between soil water content and the sum of precipitation and initial soil water content in local area are obvious. Based on them, Miami model of precipitation was improved by soil water content of sowing time and precipitation during maize growing period. The improved Miami model of precipitation is better in operational dynamic forecasting of maize yield trend every month. And also, it is practicable in assessment of precipitation influence on growth and development and dry matter accumulation of maize using this method in the Northwest China. But it is not suitable for the irrigating areas, because temperature and solar hour etc. Were not considered in this method.
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表 1 1997～2001年中国主要作物平均单产预报误差
表 2 BN和By的相关性
表 3 长治、礼县等站Wi与Pi的相关性
表 4 平凉、礼县等站Bwp与Y的相关性及增减变化趋势
表 5 平凉、昔阳等站不同时间的预报结果(%)与产量丰歉(%)对比
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[1] 王馥棠,李郁竹,王石立.农业产量气象模拟与模型引论.北京:科学出版社,1990.1-104. [2] 王建林,宋迎波. 棉花产量动态预测方法研究.中国棉花,2002.29(9):5-7. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZMZZ200209002.htm [3] 高素华.中国农业气候资源及主要作物产量变化图集.北京:气象出版社,1995.14-19. [4] 华北平原作物水分胁迫与干旱研究课题组.作物水分胁迫与干旱研究.郑州:河南科学技术出版社,1991.4-30. -
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