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北半球海冰强迫作用下大气可预报性研究
ASSESSING POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH BOREAL SEA ICE WITH AN AGCM
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摘要: 使用LASG/IAP GOALS耦合模式中的全球大气环流模式分量AGCMR15L9的计算结果，在其他外强迫维持气候值不变的情况下，用方差分析的方法，以外部方差与总方差之比Re作为衡量标准，考察该模式关于海冰的季节和跨季节潜在可预报性的大小。结果发现，从总体上看，北半球海冰变化所造成的潜在可预报性较小，只有在大气低层的一些气候要素，如温度、湿度的结果中，才存在Re＞0.5的现象。潜在可预报性结果的局地特征比较明显，高值往往发生在海冰年际变率大的区域里。与中低纬海温在中高纬地区的影响相比，不排除海冰的作用更大的可能性。另外，如果分区域看，北半球某些区域的海冰，在若干挑选出的其区域海冰面积发生大异常年份中的潜在可预报性可能会比不做挑选的总体结果要大。这说明北半球某些区域海冰在面积发生较大异常的时候，可能对同期或（及）后期环流有着比较重要的影响。Abstract: The potential predictability associated alone with boreal sea ice on the seasonal to intraannual scale is studied with AGCMR15L9, the atmospheric component of LASG/IAP GOALS. With the aid of the analysis variance, it is found that the predictability index, expressed as a ratio of the external variance to the total, is weak in most regions. But as far as some low level, say 1000 hPa, variables are concerned, such as atmospheric temperature and relative humidity, stronger predictability larger than 0.5 can be found in some regions where the interannual sea ice variability is great. Compared with sea surface temperature (SST) in the lower latitude, the Boreal sea ice may have an equivalent or even stronger impact on the mid-high latitude atmospheric circulation. In addition, in some regions where the local sea ice variance is great, a greater predictability in the years of large sea ice area anomalies can be achieved than the results of the total 31 years. It means that large sea ice anomalies in some specific regions may lead to great anomalies in the corresponding atmospheric circulation.
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Key words:
- Boreal sea ice;
- Potential predictability;
- Local sea ice
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表 1 本文主要考察的几个海冰区域
表 2 各区域的10个海冰大异常年
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