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CAPPS在太原市本地化过程中的改进和应用
IMPROVEMENT AND APPLICATION OF CAPPS LOCALIZED IN TAIYUAN CITY
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摘要: 该文针对CAPPS在太原市运行的误差问题，在分析其主要原因的基础上，变换地形背景场，依据不同季节、不同天气形势，在模式中增加对综合误差系数和扬尘系数的调节功能，进行多种数值模拟试验。结果表明：在误差分析基础上确定的模拟试验方案，使主要污染物SO2、NOX和PM10的预报值与监测值的相关系数分别提高到0.96、0.91和0.89，最终使CAPPS成为预报准确率稳定在90%以上的业务化数值模式系统。
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关键词:
- 空气污染指数（API）;
- 误差分析;
- 模拟试验;
- 业务化系统
Abstract: Based on the analysis of the main reasons that lead to the error problems appearing in the operation of the CAPPS Model System in Taiyuan City, the varying of the orographic background fields were discussed. According to different seasons and different synoptic situations, the accommodation function of complex error coefficient and raising dust coefficient is added to this model system and various numerical simulation experiments are made. The result shows that through the simulation experiment schemes based on error analysis, the correlation coefficients of the prediction and the observation of main pollutants: SO2, NOx and PM10 are increased to 0.96, 0.91 and 0.89. The forecast accuracy of the CAPPS Model System localized into an operation numerical model system in Taiyuan City can be reached to 90%. -
表 1 不同时期每日各时段平均SO2的Ki系数模拟值
表 2 不同时期每日各时段平均NOX的Ki系数模拟值
表 3 太原市扬尘系数 (F) 表达式
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[1] 徐大海, 朱蓉.大气平流扩散的非静稳多箱模型与污染潜势指数预报.应用气象学报, 2000, 11(1): 1-12. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20000101&flag=1 [2] 范引琪.石家庄市主要大气污染物的数值预报.气象, 2001, 27(4):7-11. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX200104002.htm -
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