“非bogus初值”热带气旋数值预报及其性能
"NON-BOGUSSING" INITIALIZATION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONENUMERICAL PREDICTION AND ITS FEATURES
-
摘要: 从高分辨模式特点及精细预报的需要出发,尝试了用“非bogus初值”开展热带气旋精细数值预报的方案。即直接采用四维同化形成的热带气旋(TC)初值,而不再加入“人造台风”(BOGUS)信息,以图避免人为理想结构带来的虚假信息,对热带气旋路径、强度、结构等有更为精细和准确的预报。用2001年所有影响华南的TC实例,对方案的可行性进行了分析。结果表明,本方案可以较好地预报TC的生成;路径预报准确率较高,对疑难路径及局地效应反映较为细致,路径预报误差随时效增大不显著;强度趋势预报指示意义强,准确率较高;尤其是能很好地反映TC的云、雨、风等的非对称结构、螺旋结构等特征的时空演化,对TC中尺度结构的刻画能力和预报可用性较强。显示了方案的优越性和发展潜力,也意味着“非bogus初值”方案应该作为未来TC数值预报发展的一个主要技术方向。分析表明目前条件下本方案还存在一些不足之处,主要表现在因初始信息的不足,当在TC过弱、初生或远离大陆等情况下,常会出现初始场中TC位置和强度与实况偏差过大,容易造成较大预报误差。Abstract: For the demand of fine prediction and based on the features of high resolution models, the "non-bogussing" initialization was tested to make fine prediction of tropical cyclones (TC), i. e., the initial fields from 4-dimensional assimilation was adopted, without adding the TC bogussing, to avoid illusive information induced from idealized TC structure, and to acquire finer or more accurate prediction to the track, intensity and structure of TCs. The feasibility of the scheme was evaluated by using all TC cases which affected the South China in 2001. The results show that the scheme has a better capability to predict the genesis of TCs, and higher accuracy for track prediction, with prediction errors unremarkably increasing with integral time, and especially reflects better the complicated track and local effects. While it shows a higher skill for TC intensity prediction in terms of intensity change. In addition, it reflects well the asymmetric and spiral structures of cloud, rainfall and winds for the TCs, showing well practicability. All of these revealed the advantages and developing potentials of the scheme, which implies that "non-bogussing" initialization should be one of the main approaches for the TC numerical prediction techniques in the future. However, at the current condition, the scheme possesses some insufficiencies. The main problem is that due to the lack of observational information, larger errors may often occur in the initial TC position or intensity, which may cause larger prediction errors, when the TC is too weak, newly arising or far away from the mainland.
-
表 1 2001年广州中尺度模式TC路径预报误差统计
表 2 GZHM模式对TC生成的预报情况统计
表 3 2001年广州中尺度模式台风强度 (12~72 h) 预报评分
表 4 2001~2002年广州中尺度模式对各TC强度趋势预报简况
表 5 广州中尺度模式对TC结构预报简况
-
[1] Ueno M, OKnogi K. Improvement in the Operational Typhoon Bogussing Method. Escape/WMO Typhoon Committee Technical Conference on SPECTRUM, 1991. [2] 何安国, 王康玲.南海异常台风预报的数值试验.热带气象学报, 1993, 9(2):133-141. [3] 万齐林.南海台风模式TC强度预报分析.粤港澳重要天气研讨会, 香港, 2000. [4] Flatau M, Schubert W H, Stevens D E. The role of baroclinic processes in tropical cyclone motion: The influence of vertical tilt.Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 1994, 51: 2589-2601. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<2589:TROBPI>2.0.CO;2 [5] 周霞琼, 端义宏, 朱永禔.热带气旋路径集合预报方法研究:正压模式结果的初步分析.热带气象学报, 2003, 19:1-8. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RDQX200301000.htm [6] 陈德辉.热带气旋数值预报新进展.气象科技, 1995, (3):7-12. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKJ503.001.htm [7] Tadashi Tsuyuki. Variational data assimilation in the tropics using precipitation data. Part II: 3D model.Monthly Weather Review, 1996, 124: 2545-2561. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<2545:VDAITT>2.0.CO;2 [8] Shi J J, Chang S, Raman S. Impact of assimilations of dropwindsonde data and SSM/I rain rates on numerical predictions of hurricane florence (1988).Monthly Weather Review, 1996, 124:1435-1448. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<1435:IOAODD>2.0.CO;2 [9] Marshall J F L. Tropical cyclone forecasts using high resolution satellite data and 4D-Var. Proceedings of the Fifth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-V), Cairns, Queensland, Australia.2002. [10] Davidson N E, Puri K. Tropical prediction using dynamical nudging, satellite-defined convective heat sources, and a cyclone bogus.Monthly Weather Review, 1992, 120:2501-2522. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<2501:TPUDNS>2.0.CO;2 [11] Zou Xiaolei, Xiao Qingnong. Studies on the initialization and simulation of a mature hurricane using a variational bogus data assimilation scheme.Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2000, 57: 836-860. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(2000)057<0836:SOTIAS>2.0.CO;2 [12] Goerss J S, Jeffries R A. Assimilation of synthetic tropical cyclone observations into the navy operational global atmospheric prediction system.Weather and Forecasting, 1994, 9: 557-576. doi: 10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009<0557:AOSTCO>2.0.CO;2 [13] Kwon H J, Won S-H. GFDL-type typhoon initialization in MM5.Monthly Weather Review, 2002, 130: 2966-2974. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2966:GTTIIM>2.0.CO;2 [14] 闫敬华.广州中尺度模式局地要素预报性能分析.应用气象学报, 2001, 12(1): 21-29. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20010103&flag=1 [15] 陈德辉.世界数值预报发展动态与中国数值预报发展设想.全国数值预报与并行计算研讨会论文汇编, 重庆, 2000.1-11. [16] 端义宏.热带气旋强度变化研究进展.第十二届全国热带气旋科学讨论会论文摘要, 宁波, 2002.11-14.