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HLAFS业务预报系统改进对比试验
COMPARISON EXPERIMENT OF IMPROVEMENT IN HLAFS OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM
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摘要: 该文以国家气象中心的有限区域业务预报模式为基础，在模式中引入了简化的混合相云方案，其中包括云水雨水的冻结、冰雪的融化等冰相过程；并把模式的水平分辨率由0.5°×0.5°提高到0.25°×0.25°经纬度网格。在此基础上建立了较高分辨率的同化预报系统，并使用实时资料进行预报对比试验。试验结果表明，改进后的降水落区预报有了明显进步，强降水中心的降雨量预报也有所增强，与原方案相比更接近于降水实况。Abstract: The main study purpose is to improve the precipitation prediction. Based on the operational limited area forecast model in National Meteorological Center, a simple mixedphase explicit cloud scheme was implanted, in which the freezing of cloud/rain water and melting of snow were considered and the snow as well as super-cooling water was allowed to exist under 0℃ in the model atmosphere, and the horizontal resolution was increased from 0.5o×0.5o to 0.25o×0.25oin latitude and longitude. Depending upon the improved model, the corresponding assimilation system was set up, and comparison experiment was implemented. The verification to precipitation predictions between two schemes with real-time data show that precipitation area predicted by new scheme is better than old scheme obviously, and also, the precipitation intensity in the precipitation central area is strengthened and closed to the observation.
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图 1 (a)、(b) 分别为2002年夏季全国范围24h和48h预报Ts评分结果和预报偏差评分结果; (c)、(d) 分别为2002年夏季东北地区24h和48h预报Ts评分结果和预报偏差评分结果
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[1] 闫之辉, 赵俊英, 朱琪, 等.高分辨率有限区域业务数值预报模式及其降水预报试验.应用气象学报, 1997, 8(4):393-401. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-YYQX704.001.htm [2] 闫之辉, 郭肖容, 赵俊英.一个载水预报模式的业务预报应用试验.应用气象学报, 1999, 10(4):453~461. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19990487&flag=1 [3] 刘奇俊, 胡志晋, 周秀骥.HLAFS显式云降水方案及其对暴雨和云物理过程的模拟, (1) 云降水显式方案.应用气象学报, 2003, 14(增刊):60~67. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YYQX2003S1008.htm [4] 胡志晋, 楼小凤, 包绍武, 等.一个简化的混合相云降水显式方案.应用气象学报, 1998, 9(3):257~264. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19980338&flag=1 [5] 朱政慧, 闫之辉, Zaphiris Christidis.并行高分辨率有限区域预报系统 (HLAFS) 在IBM SP并行机上的建立.应用气象学报, 2003, 14(1):119~121. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20030114&flag=1 -
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