HLAFS业务预报系统改进对比试验

COMPARISON EXPERIMENT OF IMPROVEMENT IN HLAFS OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM

  • 摘要: 该文以国家气象中心的有限区域业务预报模式为基础,在模式中引入了简化的混合相云方案,其中包括云水雨水的冻结、冰雪的融化等冰相过程;并把模式的水平分辨率由0.5°×0.5°提高到0.25°×0.25°经纬度网格。在此基础上建立了较高分辨率的同化预报系统,并使用实时资料进行预报对比试验。试验结果表明,改进后的降水落区预报有了明显进步,强降水中心的降雨量预报也有所增强,与原方案相比更接近于降水实况。

     

    Abstract: The main study purpose is to improve the precipitation prediction. Based on the operational limited area forecast model in National Meteorological Center, a simple mixedphase explicit cloud scheme was implanted, in which the freezing of cloud/rain water and melting of snow were considered and the snow as well as super-cooling water was allowed to exist under 0℃ in the model atmosphere, and the horizontal resolution was increased from 0.5o×0.5o to 0.25o×0.25oin latitude and longitude. Depending upon the improved model, the corresponding assimilation system was set up, and comparison experiment was implemented. The verification to precipitation predictions between two schemes with real-time data show that precipitation area predicted by new scheme is better than old scheme obviously, and also, the precipitation intensity in the precipitation central area is strengthened and closed to the observation.

     

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