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热带气旋强度的卫星探测客观估计方法研究
AN OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUE FOR ESTIMATING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY FROM GEOSTATIONARY METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE OBSERVATION
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摘要: 运用2001～2002年6月10日到8月10日西北太平洋上15个热带气旋的日本静止气象卫星（GMS-5）高分辨率红外辐射亮温（TBB）资料，从代表热带气旋强度的热带气旋云系特征中选取多个TBB因子及热带气旋中心所在纬度等因子，结合《热带气旋年鉴》资料，采用逐步回归方法，经多次试验求得热带气旋强度的客观估计算式，复相关系数达到0.80以上。由此式估计的热带气旋中心气压，经24 h滑动平均后的结果与年鉴气压的复相关系数提高到0.89，且两者之间的气压差在±10 hPa之内的占整个样本数的83%以上，与美国新近展示的相关研究结果十分接近。用2000年两个热带气旋作检验，结果很好。该客观方法有望替代目前的Dvorak主观估计方法，成为一种新的业务方法。Abstract: An objective technique for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is proposed in the context of GMS-5 blackbody temperatures (TBB) from 15 TCs over the northwestern Pacific Ocean during 2001—2002 and multiple TBB factors taken form the TC intensity-representative cloud system as well as the latitude of TC cores and the data from the Tropical Cyclones Annual that are treated by stepwise regression, leading to an objective scheme for TC intensity estimation after a number of experiments, with the complex correlation coefficient being more than 0.80. The scheme-estimated TC central pressures show the complex correlation coefficient of 0.89 between 24 h running mean and the annual, used samples having ±10 hPa difference between the two sources are more than 83%, the result is close to the result reported by US researchers. Also, validations of two TCs recorded in 2000 is successful, it is likely that the scheme will replace the subjective technique of Dvorak in current use to be a new method on a operational basis.
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图 2 估计气压与年鉴气压之差在各等级中占样本总数的百分比分布
(1表示Δp≤-20 hPa, 2表示-20 hPa＜Δp≤-10 hPa, 3表示-10 hPa ＜Δp≤0 hPa, 4表示0 h Pa＜Δp≤10 hPa, 5表示10 hPa ＜Δp≤20 hPa, 6表示Δp >20 hPa。正值 (负值) 表示估计气压相对于年鉴气压的低估 (高估))
图 4 估计气压经24 h滑动平均后与年鉴气压之差在各个等级中占样本总数的百分比
(1表示-20 hPa＜Δp≤-10 hPa, 2表示-10 hPa ＜Δp≤0 hPa, 3表示0 hPa＜Δp≤10 hPa, 4表示10 hPa＜Δp≤20 hPa, 5表示Δp >20 hPa。正值 (负值) 表示估计气压相对于年鉴气压的低估 (高估))
表 1 热带气旋强度因子与其强度多元回归复相关系数表
表 2 不同时间滑动平均前后各项误差比较
表 3 估计气压经滑动平均前后与年鉴气压的相关系数
表 4 2002年5号台风估计气压经滑动平均前后各项误差比较
表 5 2001年4号台风估计气压经滑动平均前后各项误差比较
表 6 2000年8号台风估计气压经滑动平均前后各项误差比较
表 7 2000年4号台风估计气压经滑动平均前后各项误差比较
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