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印度洋、南海和东南沿海海温异常影响江淮流域6~7月降水量的分析及数值模拟
INFLUENCES OF SSTA IN INDIAN OCEAN, SOUTH CHINA SEA AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL REGION OF CHINA ON YANGTZE-HUAIHE RIVER VALLEY PRECIPITATION OF JUNE AND JULY
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摘要: 利用统计分析和CCM3数值模式研究了印度洋、南海和东南沿海同期海温异常对江淮梅雨的影响。统计分析结果表明:印度洋、南海和东南沿海的正 (负) 海温异常对应于江淮流域的多 (少) 雨。对OLR资料分析表明:当印度洋OLR为正 (负) 距平时, 江淮流域OLR也为正 (负) 距平, 但南海和东南沿海OLR多为负 (正) 距平。数值模拟结果表明:当印度洋为正海温异常时, 中高纬地区的阻高偏强, 江淮流域为多雨区; 印度洋为负海温异常时, 东亚沿海出现江淮流域旱年的环流形势, 与统计事实相符合。Abstract: By using the statistics method and numerical simulations, influences of SSTA in Indian Ocean, South China Sea and southeastern coastal region of China on Yangtze-Huaihe River valley precipitation is undertaken. The results of statistic analysis show that the precipitation is plentiful (deficient) when the SSTA is positive (negative) anomaly. On the basis of analyzing OLR data, OLR of Yangtze-Huaihe River valley is positive (negative) anomaly when the OLR in Indian Ocean is positive (negative) anomaly, but the OLR of South China Sea and southeastern coastal region of China is negative (positive) anomaly. The results of numerical simulation show that the blocking high of middle-high latitude is stronger and the precipitation of Yangtze-Huaihe River valley is excessive when the SSTA of Indian Ocean is positive. In coastal region of East Asia, the general circulation is same with that of less rainfall of Yangtze-Huaihe River valley, in good agreement with statistical facts.
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图 6 印度洋正海温试验与控制试验模拟结果偏差 (a)6~7月降水量偏差
(单位:mm/d, 等值线间隔为2 mm/ d), (b)6月500 hPa高度场偏差, (c)7月500 hPa高度场偏差 (单位:dagpm, 等值线间隔为2 dagpm)
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