松嫩辽流域夏季面雨量预测因子探讨

AN APPROACH TO A PROGNOSTIC FACTOR OF BASIN RAINFALL IN SUMMER OVER THE SONGHUAJIANG-NENJIANG-LIAOHE VALLEYS

  • 摘要: 利用松花江、嫩江、辽河流域50余年45站降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料, 分析了松嫩辽流域夏季面雨量的气候特征和影响夏季面雨量异常的前期因子, 提出了一种利用前期11~12月北半球环流异常特征对该流域夏季旱涝趋势定性预测的方案, 方案中定义了两个反映中高纬环流异常的指数, 可以较好地分辨和预测松嫩辽流域面雨量异常。

     

    Abstract: By use of 45-station rainfall from the Song hua jiang, Nenjiang and Liaohe (SN L)river v alleys and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, study is made of the climate features of the summer basin rainfall over the valley s and the forerunner relative to the anomaly, proposing a qualitative prediction scheme for a flood or drought trend based on the Northern Hemisphere circulation anomaly in the previous November and December.The scheme introduces two indices for the anomaly of extratropical circulations, with which to satisfactorily discern and predict the singularities of the basin precipitation in summer.

     

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