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动力延伸预报产品释用方法的改进试验
IMPROVED EXPERIMENT ON THE EXPLANATION AND ANALYSIS METHOD OF DYNAMICAL EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PRODUCTS
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摘要: 依据动力延伸预报产品释用方法中所建立的月降水距平百分率预报方程，将方程系数看成是动态系数，采用与预报月高度场相似月份的资料作为样本资料，通过改善方程系数的计算来提高月降水预报。1998～2004年的历史实况资料在安徽省的回报实验证明：在目前T63／NCC月动力延伸预报产品的准确率不能快速提高的情况下，该方法具有实际应用价值。利用T63／NCC月动力延伸产品进行安徽省月降水预报应用亦取得较好的效果。Abstract: Based on a relationship between monthly precipitation anomaly and monthly circulation, the forecast equation coefficients are calculated as variables. The sample data are selected from which has similar potential height field to that in the forecast month. The monthly rainfall forecasts is improved by calculating the equation coefficients. The latest seven-year hindcast tests proves that the method of calculating of coefficients has certain value in operational application. Under the consideration of a limited accuracy of T63/NCC monthly dynamical extended-range forecast products (T63/NCC MDERFP). Also, results are obtained in the application of monthly rainfall forecast of Anhui Province by T63/NCC MDERFP。
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表 1 1998-2004 年各年平均降水距平百分率评分PS 对比%
表 2 1998-2004 年年平均降水距平百分率评分PS对比%
表 3 2001-2003 年4-9 月降水距平
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