设为首页
加入收藏
动力延伸预报产品释用方法的改进试验
IMPROVED EXPERIMENT ON THE EXPLANATION AND ANALYSIS METHOD OF DYNAMICAL EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PRODUCTS
-
摘要: 依据动力延伸预报产品释用方法中所建立的月降水距平百分率预报方程，将方程系数看成是动态系数，采用与预报月高度场相似月份的资料作为样本资料，通过改善方程系数的计算来提高月降水预报。1998～2004年的历史实况资料在安徽省的回报实验证明：在目前T63／NCC月动力延伸预报产品的准确率不能快速提高的情况下，该方法具有实际应用价值。利用T63／NCC月动力延伸产品进行安徽省月降水预报应用亦取得较好的效果。Abstract: Based on a relationship between monthly precipitation anomaly and monthly circulation, the forecast equation coefficients are calculated as variables. The sample data are selected from which has similar potential height field to that in the forecast month. The monthly rainfall forecasts is improved by calculating the equation coefficients. The latest seven-year hindcast tests proves that the method of calculating of coefficients has certain value in operational application. Under the consideration of a limited accuracy of T63/NCC monthly dynamical extended-range forecast products (T63/NCC MDERFP). Also, results are obtained in the application of monthly rainfall forecast of Anhui Province by T63/NCC MDERFP。
-
表 1 1998-2004 年各年平均降水距平百分率评分PS 对比%
表 2 1998-2004 年年平均降水距平百分率评分PS对比%
表 3 2001-2003 年4-9 月降水距平
-
[1] Karl T R,Wang W C,Schlesinger M E,et al.A method of relating general circulation model simulated climate to the observed local climate.Part I:Seasonal statistics.J Climate,1990,3(10):1053-1079。 doi: 10.1175/1520-0442%281990%29003%3C1053%3AAMORGC%3E2.0.CO%3B2 [2] Zorita E,von Storch H.The analog method as a simple statistical downscaling technique:comparison with more complicated methods.J Climate,1999,12 (8):2474-2489。 doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2474:TAMAAS>2.0.CO;2 [3] Aristita Busuioc,Deliang Chen,Ccilia Hellstrêm.Performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation andregional climate change estimates:application for Swedish precipitation.International Journal of Climatology,2001,21(5):557-578。 doi: 10.1002/joc.v21:5 [4] 李维京,陈丽娟.动力延伸预报产品释用方法的研究.气象学报,1999,57(3):338-334。 http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB903.007.htm [5] 陈丽娟,李维京,张培群,等.降尺度技术在月降水预报中的应用.应用气象学报,2003,14(6):648-655。 http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20030682&flag=1 [6] 陈丽娟,李维京.月动力延伸预报产品的评估和解释应用.应用气象学报,1999,10(4):486-490。 http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=199904101&flag=1 [7] 林纾,李维京,陈丽娟.月动力延伸预报产品在甘肃省的实用及评估,气象,2004,30(10):22-26。 http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX200410004.htm [8] 马振锋,陈洪.T63月延伸预报在西南区域短期气候预测中的应用研究.应用气象学报,1999,10(3):368-373。 http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19990373&flag=1 [9] 丑纪范,郜吉东.长期数值天气预报.北京:气象出版社,1995.201-216。 [10] 余剑莉.统计天气预报.北京:气象出版社,1994.209-227。 [11] 王咏亮,耿淑琴.数值预报产品在相似延伸法中的应用.海洋学报,2001,18(2):39-47。 http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HYYB200102005.htm [12] Paegle J N,Haslam R B.Statistical prediction of 500 mb height field using eigenvectors.J Apll Meteoro,1982,21(2):127-138。 doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(1982)021<0127:SPOMHF>2.0.CO;2 -
表(3)计量
- 摘要浏览量: 2777
- HTML全文浏览量: 559
- PDF下载量: 1486
- 被引次数: 0
下载:
