Progresses on Climatological Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Methods———In Commemoration of the 50 Anniversaries of CAMS Establishment

An overview of the progress in Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) has been made on the method of climatological statistical diagnosis and prediction in recent 50 years. The study on climatological statistical diagnosis and prediction falls into such several phases as the introduction, the application, the outspreading and the innovation. In 1960s, statistics methods and application into studies on climatological statistical analysis and prediction, incorporating the climatic characters in China are introduce by the climatologists. In this period the introduction, application and outspreading of the statistics are explored and great effective studies are made on by researchers in CAMS. During 1970s and 1980s, great effort has been made and fuzzy set theory and gray system to every branch of atmosphere science. In 1990s, studies on climatological statistical diagnosis and prediction are very active. Employing new methods and new technology widens the field of vision on understanding and forecasting the climate system; and many observation facts are obtained. During this period, the relative studies in CAMS are plentiful, not only the climatic trend, diagnosis of climate abrupt, interdecadal oscillation and interaction of different scales variability, but also the causes of climate anomaly. In order to improve the level of short-term climate forecast further, a series of new methods of statistical forecast are proposed and developed which play important roles in climate operational prediction and weather decision-making.