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雷达定量测量降水在佛子岭流域径流模拟中的应用
Application of Radar Rainfall Estimates to Runoff Simulation in Foziling Basin
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摘要: 以位于合肥雷达西南100 km的佛子岭闭合流域 (1813 km2) 及该流域的6个子流域为研究区域, 用地面雨量计和雷达-雨量计联合校准两种方法进行流域面雨量计算, 将两种方法计算的面雨量分别作为TOPMODEL (TOPography based hydrological MODEL) 降水-径流模型的输入, 对模型输出结果进行比较。个例分析表明:雷达-雨量计联合测量降水的精度是否高于单独用地面雨量计计算的精度, 在一定程度上取决于用于校准的地面雨量计数目和代表性; 即使雨量计计算的整个流域面雨量与雷达-雨量计联合校准后的结果接近, 对应子流域面雨量的结果仍然会存在差别; 不同方法计算的某一子流域面雨量的差别越大, 则TOPMODEL水文模型输出的该子流域径流深的差别也越大。Abstract: It is well acknowledged that the accuracy of stream flow predictions from a hydrologic model is heavily dependent on the accuracy of the precipitation inputs. Particularly, high variability of rainfall exists both in time and space, and mountainous basins have in general fast response time. Therefore, hydrological models taking into account the rainfall variability should play an important role in flood alert systems in mountainous basins. In this sense, weather radar inform ation is a key element in flood forecasting. The studied closed basin, Foziling (1813 km2), has a basin-to-radar distance of 100 km from southwest of the Hefei CINRAD/SA radar (31.866°N, 117.257°E). Comparisons of raingage-based and radar-gage-based simulated discharges using TOPMODEL (TOPography based hydrological MODEL) are performed for the Foziling basin and its 6 subcatchments. Rainfall observations of the basin are available from 12 raingauges operated by Bureau of Hydrology, Huaihe River Commission, Ministry of Water Resources PRC. In order to utilize true independent data sources for verification purposes, 6 gauges are withheld from the estimation scheme and used for verification instead. The radar data are selected from an S-band Doppler weather radar located at Hefei, Anhui Province throughout the period from June 20 to July 12, 2003. The TOPMODEL rainfall-runoff model used in this study is a semi-distributed watershed model that simulates the variable-source-area mechanism of storm runoff generation and incorporates the effects of topography on flow paths. For the application of the TOPMODEL, the topographic index is computed based on 1:250000 DEM (Digital Elevation Model). To some extent, whether the merged radar-gage estimates are better than the gage-only estimates or not is relative to the density and representativeness of the raingage network; even when the raingage-only and radargage mean areal rainfall estimates show nearly the same value for the Foziling basin, there is discrepancy between raingage-only and radar-gage estimates of mean areal rainfall for each subcatchment; for certain subcatchment, the greater the discrepancy between the raingage-only and radar-gage mean areal rainfall estim ates, the bigger the divergence between the corresponding simulated runoff depths from TOPMODEL. Therefore, even when a relatively dense raingauge network exists, the rain gauge data alone do not provide an initial rainfall state that is detailed enough for accurate hydrologic simulation, and radar information is essential to provide accurate flow estimates using a rainfall-runoff model. In fact, a density of about 1 raingauge per 300 km2, which is the case of the Foziling basin after the 6 verification raingauges are withheld, is insufficient to reproduce the spatial precipitation pattern of the event studied. Conclusions from the study may be specific to the target case, which is based on the characteristics of the QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation) inputs and the TOPMODEL hydrologic model, or specific hydrologic characteristics of the Foziling basin. In the future, additional events, other hydrological models and some more robust radar-raingauge correction procedures will be investigated.
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Key words:
- weather radar;
- rainfall-runoff model;
- TOPMODEL
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图 1 研究区域示意图（a）合肥雷达周围地形图以及佛子岭流域的位置，（b）合肥雷达仰角0.5°上阻塞率以及佛子岭流域的位置，（c）基于1:250000 DEM的佛子岭流域6个子流域划分示意图及雨量计分布图（实心方块表示评估站，实心圆和空心圆表示校准站），（d）佛子岭流域三维视图
Fig. 1 Presentation of the study area (a) relief map of the Hefei radar and the location of Foziling basin, (b) beam blockage of Hefei radar at elevation of 0.5° and location of the Foziling basin, (c) a sketch map of the 6 subcatchments of the Foziling basin from 1:250000 DEM and the location of the rain gauge network (solid squares for evaluation and circles for adjustment), (d) the 3D view of the Foziling basin
图 2 佛子岭流域中6个子流域的三维视图
（a）子流域1，（b）子流域2，（c）子流域3，（d）子流域4，（e）子流域5，（f）子流域6
Fig. 2 The 3D views of 6 subcatchments in the Foziling basin
(a) subcatchment 1, (b) subcatchment 2, (c) subcatchment 3, (d) subcatchment 4, (e) subcatchment 5, (f) subcatchment 6
图 3 雨量计（a）及雷达（b）测值与评估值比较散点图
（图中给出了回归线、相关系数R、雨量测值个数N及均方根误差ERMS）
Fig. 3 Scatterplots of the hourly precipitation calculated from the rain gauge data (a) and the radar data (b)
(the regression line, correlation coeffecient R between compared quangtites, the number of calculated rainfall values N, and the root mean squared error ERMS are also given in each plot)
图 4 2003年6月20日至7月12日平均校准因子随时间变化 (a)6个雨量计参加校准, (b)2个雨量计参加校准
Fig. 4 Temporal variations of the averaged adjustment factors from June 20 to July 12, 2003 (a)6 rain gauges for adjustment, (b)2 rain gauges for adjustment
图 5 2003年6月20日01:00到7月12日00:00佛子岭水库实测和模拟入库流量过程 (a) 降水输入为6个雨量计计算的各子流域面雨量 (上部为相应的佛子岭流域面雨量), (b) 降水输入为雷达联合6个雨量计反演的各子流域面雨量 (上部为相应的佛子岭流域面雨量)
Fig. 5 Observed and simulated discharges from 01:00 on June 20 to 00:00 on July 12, 2003 for the Foziling basin (a) from the raingauge-based mean areal rainfall of subcatchments using 6 rain gauges (the upper curve shows the correspongding mean areal rainfall for the Foziling basin), (b) from the adjusted radar-based mean areal rainfall of subcatchments using 6 rain gauges (the upper curve shows the correspongding mean areal rainfall for the Foziling basin)
图 6 2003年6月20日01:00到7月12日00:00佛子岭流域中子流域1的流域面雨量及模拟流域出口流量
Fig. 6 The mean areal rainfall estimates and simulated discharges from 01:00 on June 20 to 00:00 on July 12, 2003 for subcatchmennt 1 of the Foziling basin
表 1 佛子岭流域中各子流域的面积和河道出口距离
Table 1 List of the subcatchments with their corresponding area and distance to the outlet of the Foziling basin
表 2 雨量计测值精度评估表
Table 2 Evaluation of the hourly precipitation calculated from the rain gauge data
表 3 雷达测值精度评估表
Table 3 Evaluation of the accumulated hourly precipitation derived from the radar data
表 4 不同降水输入情况下佛子岭流域出口流量模拟的模型效率系数 (E)
Table 4 Coefficient of efficiency (E) of hydrographs simulated using rain gages and radar estimates for the Foziling basin
表 5 2003年6月20日至7月12日佛子岭流域及子流域的面雨量和模拟径流深统计
Table 5 Statistics of mean areal rainfall estimates and simulated runoff depths for the Foziling basin with its 6 subcatchments from June 20 to July 12, 2003
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