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森林火险气象指数的应用研究
Applied Research on Forest Fire Danger Weather Index
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摘要: 利用全国575个国家级基本气象站1971年1月1日至2005年5月31日的气象观测资料, 选用了5种已得到国际普遍认可或我国国家级预警业务中使用的森林火险气象指数计算方法, 计算了我国长序列的历史逐日森林火险气象指数, 并对这些指数在我国的实际使用效果进行对比分析和应用研究。结果表明: IFFD, INMC, IN, IMN指数可在我国大范围推广使用 (除长江中下游及附近地区), 其中以IFFD指数总体应用效果最好, IMN指数次之。Abstract: Forest fire is one of the main disasters which damage the ecosystem on the earth.Not only vegetation coverage and charcoal storage can be reduced and atmosphere composition can be changed, but also variation of vegetation structure and biological species can be induced and social economy, human health, and even life can be impacted.And the occurrence of forest-fire is very closely related with the meteorological conditions. Until now domestic and foreign meteorologists and forestry experts have developed a lot of forest fire danger weather indices to estimate and predict possibility of ignition, fire intensity and its spread, as well as difficulty of wildfire control. In this study, 5 calculation methods of forest fire danger weather index are chosen, which have been approved universally or used in state-level early warning service in China, using meteorological observation data of 575 national basic meteorological stations from Jan 1, 1971 to May 31, 2005, to conduct contrast analysis and applied research on the practical effects of these indices in China.The purpose of this study is to examine and discover a best method to find forest fire danger weather index which suits Chinese weather and climatic characteristics, and to improve the operational level of Chinese state-level forest fire danger monitoing and early warning.The results indicate that IFFD, INMC, IN and IMN index may be promoted and used in China on a large scale (except in middle and lower reaches and nearby regions of Yangtze River), in which the overall application effect of IFFD index is the best, and IMN index takes the second place.IFFD index is the best in these five kinds of indices not only because of its practical application effect, and because it has the highest corresponding relations with number of the forest-fire in Northeast China and Southwest China, which are two large key Chinese meteorological service regions of forest fire protection, but also of its construction method.IKBD is not suitable for the most areas of China, but when it is brought into IFFD as a part of drought factor, the practical application effect of IFFD is improved significantly.The practical application effect of IMN is proved to be also good.Its value is closer to the fact than IN, after weighting coefficient is introduced to control the reduction rate of different precipitation to the index.INMC also has good instruction function to forest fire risk, but it is not a patch on IFFD and IMN as a whole.One of the causes is that INMC is insufficient in considering the previous climatic background.In fact, high or extremely high forest fire danger weather rating is related closely to previous precipitation deficit.
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图 1 各区代表省5种森林火险气象指数逐月平均值 (1971—2000年为实线; 2000年1月—2005年5月为虚线) 和2000年1月至2005年5月森林火灾次数的逐月平均值 (直方)
(a) 黑龙江, (b) 云南, (c) 广东, (d) 河北, (e) 陕西, (f) 新疆, (g) 江西
Fig. 1 Monthly mean value of 5 forest fire danger weather indices of representative province in each region (solid line: 1971—2000; dashed line: from Jan 2000 to May 2005) and monthly mean value of forest fire numbers from Jan 2000 to May 2005 (histogram)
(a) Heilongjiang, (b) Yunnan, (c) Guangdong, (d) Hebei, (e) Shaanxi, (f) Xinjiang, (g) Jiangxi
图 2 2003年各时段东北地区和西南地区东部逐日森林火险气象等级及日降水量变化
(a) 内蒙古大兴安岭 (2月28日—7月9日), (b) 黑龙江哈尔滨 (3月1日—6月30日), (c) 四川木里 (2月1日—6月11日)
Fig. 2 Daily forest fire danger weather rating and daily precipitation in Northeast China and the east part of Southwest China in 2003
(a) Daxing'anling of Inner Mongolia (Feb 28—Jul 9), (b) Harbin of Heilongjiang (Mar 1—Jun 30), (c) Muli of Sichuan (Feb 1—Jun 11)
图 3 2003年各时段东北地区 (a, b) 和西南地区东部 (c, d) 平均森林火险气象等级 (IFFD指数) 及热源点分布图
(a)5月1—10日, (b)6月26日—7月5日, (c)5月1—10日, (d)5月19—31日
Fig. 3 Average forest fire danger weather rating by IFFD and heat source distribution in Northeast China (a, b) and the east part of Southwest China (c, d) in 2003
(a) May 1—10, (b) Jun 26—Jul 5, (c) May 1—10, (d) May 19—31
表 1 日降水量R与权重系数K的对应关系
Table 1 The corresponding relations of daily precipitation R and weighting coefficient K
表 2 2000年1月至2005年5月各省 (市、区) 月火灾次数与5种森林火险气象指数月平均值的相关系数
Table 2 The correlation coefficient of monthly fire numbers in each province (city, district) and monthly mean value of 5 forest fire danger weather indices from Jan 2000 to May 2005
表 3 森林火险气象等级划分标准
Table 3 The division standard of forest fire danger weather rating
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