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近43年来黑龙江气候变化对农作物产量影响的模拟研究
Simulation Study of Climate Change Impact on Crop Yield in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2003
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摘要: 从近43年来黑龙江省各地气候变化趋势的角度出发, 利用黑龙江省1961—2003年逐日气象资料, 采用世界粮食研究模型 (WOFOST) 和气候变化趋势的数学分析方法, 计算并分析了近43年来黑龙江省各地各主要作物模拟产量变化趋势的空间特征和各地气候要素变化趋势的空间特征, 讨论了气候变化趋势对主要粮食作物模拟产量变化趋势的影响。结果表明：气候变化趋势的空间差异对各主要作物模拟产量变化趋势的空间分布具有重要影响, 但不同作物影响不同。近43年来黑龙江省玉米模拟产量变化趋势增加, 平均增加幅度为4.81%/10a, 气温变化趋势的增高是其模拟产量变化趋势增加的主要气候因素。黑龙江省大豆模拟产量变化趋势总体上呈降低趋势, 平均降低幅度为1.52%/10a;气候变化趋势对北部和南部区域的大豆模拟产量变化趋势作用不同, 气温变化趋势的增高是北部大豆优势种植区域模拟产量变化趋势增加的主要气候因素, 气温和降水量的相应变化趋势是南部大豆种植区域模拟产量变化趋势降低的主要气候因素。Abstract: Climate warming is very remarkable in Northeast China, especially in Heilongjiang Province form 1961 to 2003, the climate change trend exerts significant impact on the yield change trend of crops. Based on the climate change trend in various areas of Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2003, with daily meteorological data of meteorological stations and their interpolated grid (50 km×50 km) data in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2003, the main food crops (maize and soybean) yields are simulated by WOFOST model in every grid of Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2003, the effectiveness test of WOFOST model is made between the official statistical yield data and the simulation yield data from 1988 to 2003, the simulation effect is good for WOFOST model. The mathematical analyses are used for the change trends of climate factor and simulation yield, the spacial distributional characteristics are calculated and analyzed for the change trends of climate factors and the main food crops simulation yields in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2003, the impacts of climate change trend are discussed on the chief food crops simulation yield change trends in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2003. The results show that the impacts of the different spacial distribution of the climate change trend are important to the different spacial distribution of chicf food crops simulation yield change trends, but the impacts are different for different crops. The change trend of simulation yield for maize is increasing in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2003, the average increasing extent is about 4.81%/10a, the rising air temperature change trend is a primary climate factor on the increasing simulation yield change trend for maize in Heilongjiang Province. As a whole, the change trend of simulation yield for soybean is falling in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2003, the average falling extent is about-1.52%/10a. The climate change trend impacts are different on the simulation yield change trends of northern and southern areas for soybean, the northern area of Heilongjiang Province is superior planted area for soybean, the rising air temperature change trend is a primary climate factor on the increasing simulation yield change trend for soybean, the change trends of relevant air temperature and rainfall are primary climate factors on the falling simulation yield change trend in southern area for soybean.
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Key words:
- Heilongjiang Province;
- chief food crops;
- climate change
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图 1 两种主要作物模拟产量与实际产量检验
Fig. 1 Test between simulation yield and actual yield for two chief crops
图 2 1961—2003年黑龙江省作物生长季平均气温 (a)、降水量 (b)、日平均辐射量 (c) 变化趋势的空间分布
Fig. 2 The change trend spacial distribution of averaged air temperature (a), rainfall (b) and daily averaged radiation (c) for crop growth season in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2003
图 3 1961—2003年黑龙江省玉米 (a) 与大豆 (b) 模拟产量变化趋势百分率的空间分布
Fig. 3 The spacial distribution of change trend percent of simulation yield for maize (a) and soybean (b) in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2003
表 1 各时间段两种主要作物不同熟型有效积温热量指标参数
Table 1 Effective temperature sum index parameters of different mature types of two chief crops for chief time phases
表 2 黑龙江省主要作物模拟产量变化趋势与作物生长季气候要素变化趋势的线性关系
Table 2 The linear relations between simulation yield change trend of chief crops and climate factor change trend of crop growth season in Heilongjiang Province
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