全国棉花发育期业务预报方法研究
Operational Prediction Method of Nationwide Cotton Development Stages
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摘要: 棉花发育期是反映棉花个体与群体生育状况的重要标志, 正确预报棉花发育期对于开展棉花气象灾害预警防御和生产管理措施建议至关重要。为此, 针对全国农业气象业务服务中尚未开展棉花发育期预报的状况, 通过对全国农业气象观测网50个站棉花发育期的变异性和影响棉花生长发育速率因子的分析, 根据实际业务资料现状和业务运行特点, 结合天气预报, 提出了以棉花发育阶段有效积温和间隔日数为指标建立棉花发育期业务预报模式的思路, 实现了可实时动态预报棉花发育期的业务运行方法。模式历史拟合、外推和试预报与实际对比的结果表明:全国50个站棉花第五真叶和开花发育期误差在5 d以内出现的频次达80%以上, 出苗、第三真叶、现蕾等发育期在70%以上, 平均绝对误差小于4 d; 裂铃期误差在6 d以内出现的频次接近70%, 平均绝对误差小于6 d, 效果较好。对棉花停止生长发育期综合考虑积温和初霜日期两个因素, 其历史拟合、外推和试预报误差在10 d以内出现的频次接近70%, 平均绝对误差接近10 d, 基本可以满足全国农业气象业务以旬为服务时效的要求。Abstract: The cotton development stages are the important features for the description of cotton individual and population characters. Accurate prediction of cotton development stage is very important for realizing various services on early warning and recovery of meteorological disasters and management strategies for cotton production, but there isn't the prediction function for cotton development stage in nationwide agrometeorological operation. In order to satisfy the service demand, the prediction method of the cotton development stage on the base of the operational data is studied. Cotton is main planted in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Yellow River and Yangtze River drainage areas in China, where climate features are different. 50 cotton-produced counties of nationwide agrometeorological observation network are located in above main cotton-produced regions, the observation of their cotton development stages reflect the course and status of Chinese cotton development well. The time for same cotton development stage is different each other in different cotton areas, the difference between years is high by analyzing the variability of cotton development stages. The various factors affecting cotton development for 50 cotton observation stations are very different. So the prediction model of the cotton development stage is built in simple station, simple development period. Among affecting factors of cotton development stages, active temperature accumulation is the most main factor for the whole cotton area, precipitation is also relative in some cotton-produced counties located in Yellow River drainage area. According to above results, operational prediction model based on active accumulated temperature and growth days index for cotton development stages has been built, considering received data available and service characteristics of nationwide agrometeorological operation, combining with the results of weather forecast. Among models, active accumulated temperature and growth days index are refreshed year by year, cotton development stages are refreshed decade by decade, historical or forecast temperature is refreshed day by day, the timely operational dynamic prediction of cotton development stages has been realized in this way. The model results of the historical fitting from 1992 to 2001, extrapolating prediction from 2002 to 2003 and testing prediction in 2004 are as follow comparing with observed cotton development stages. The frequencies within 5 days error are above 80% for the fifth leaves and blooming stages, above 70% for emergence, the third leaves and squaring stages, their average absolute errors are within 4 days for above stages. The frequency within 6 days error is near to 70% and average absolute error is within 6 days for boll opening. The frequency within 10 days error is near to 70% and average absolute error is near to 10 days for stopping growth by integrating two methods of active temperature accumulation and first frost in autumn. These results are satisfied, which could meet the demands of nationwide agrometeorological operation service.
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表 1 我国部分主产棉县1992—2003年棉花发育期年际变化
Table 1 Cotton development stage variations between years for some main cotton-produced counties in China
表 2 全国50个站点棉花相邻发育期间隔日数与有效积温、降水量之间的相关
Table 2 Correlation between days of two stages and its active temperature accumulation, precipitation for 50 cotton-produced counties in China
表 3 棉花发育期预报的各种情况组合及结果 (以预报裂铃期为例)
Table 3 Various possible combination and results in predicting cotton development stages (such as boll opening)
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