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舟山地区台风降水Z-R关系研究及其应用
Z-R Relation with Its Application to Typhoon Precipitation in Zhoushan
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摘要: 利用2004—2005年舟山多普勒天气雷达台风基数据资料和浙江省自动雨量站网资料, 拟合适合于舟山地区台风降水的Z-R关系：Z=70R1.38, 并对其进行有效性确认。应用此关系对台风“南玛都”和“卡努”的降水进行雨量估测并与美国WSR-88D默认Z-R关系及实时雨量资料进行对比。结果表明：对于小雨量地区, 应用美国WSR-88D默认Z-R关系估测台风降水比较接近于实际。但是, 对于大雨量地区来说, 应用此关系估测台风降水更接近实际雨量, 而应用默认Z-R关系估测台风降水, 大雨雨量被严重低估。文中并进一步分析了产生误差的主要原因。Abstract: Using the typhoon base data of Dopplar weather radar and Zhejiang automatic precipitation station data in 2004 and 2005, the Z-R relation of typhoon precipitation suiting the local area is set up, which is confirmed to be available. It is applied to estimate the precipitation of typhoon "Nanmadol" and "Khanun", with comparing with the real precipitation and the estimated precipitation based on Z-R relation of American WSR-88D. It shows that in an area with small rainfall, the estimated precipitation by use of Z-R relation of American WSR-88D is more close to the fact than the precipitation with using the target relation. However, in an area with heavy rainfall, the latter is more close to the fact than the former, which the rainfall is seriously underestimated. Also, causes of the main error are further studied.
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Key words:
- Z-R relation;
- base data;
- base reflectivity;
- precipitation rate
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图 1 反射率因子Z和降水率R散点图
Fig. 1 The scatterplot of the relation between reflectivity Z and precipitation rate R
图 3 “卡努”台风在舟山市部分地区的实际降水、Z=70R1.38和Z=300R1.4估测降水对比柱状图
Fig. 3 Comparison between real precipitation and estimated precipitation based on forms Z=70R1.38 and Z=300R1.4 of typhoon “Khanvn” in part areas of Zhoushan
表 1 自动雨量站点分布及与舟山雷达相对位置
Table 1 Location of Zhoushan auto-precipitation stations and the relative radar
表 2 各台风、各地点Z-R关系及其误差对比
Table 2 Z-R relation and corresponding error comparison of typhoons in precipitation stations of Zhoushan
表 3 Z=70R1.38和Z=300R1.4不同反射率因子值对应的降水率 (单位:mm/h)
Table 3 The relation of reflectivity rate and precipitation calculated by forms Z=70R1.38 and Z=300R1.4 (unit:mm/h)
表 4 “南玛都”台风各测站降水估测对比 (单位:mm)
Table 4 Real estimated precipitation comparison of typhoon "Nanmadol" of precipitation stations in Zhoushan (unit:mm)
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