近44年来我国西北地区干湿特征分析
Aridity-wetness Characteristics over Northwest China in Recent 44 Years
-
摘要: 利用我国西北地区1960—2003年131个测站降水和小型蒸发皿蒸发量资料, 综合考虑降水和蒸发这两个水分平衡最关键的分量构造了降水蒸发均一化干湿指数, 进而研究了西北地区干湿的时空演变特征。结果表明:一致性异常是西北地区近44年干湿特征的最主要空间分布模态; 西北地区干湿异常特征主要分为西风带气候区型, 高原气候区型和季风气候区型; 整个西北地区及其西风带气候区、高原气候区年干湿特征呈较为显著的变湿趋势, 大约在20世纪70年代中期均发生了由干向湿的突变, 而季风气候区表现为变干趋势, 并且在90年代前期发生了由湿向干的突变; 整个西北地区及各分区近44年来主要以年代际周期振荡为主。Abstract: Northwest (NW) China covers Xinjiang, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi and the western part of Inner Mongolia; it is located to the north and northeast of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, far away from oceans. This extensive region is one of the aridest areas in the world and also a principal arid and semi-arid expanse in China, including totally 85%of such land in China. This region is under the impacts of westerly, plateau and monsoon climates so that rainfall undergoes great variability and there is a high frequency of drought, serving as a zone sensitive to climate change and ecologically vulnerable. The inference is presented by Shi Yafeng that the NW climate is changing from a dry, warm one to a moist, warm stage one, which is awaited for further studies with more climate elements. Whether climate pattern changes or not depends completely on the change in hydrological cycle whose critical ingredient is evaporation, by which, in combination with rainfall and runoff, a regional hydrological equilibrium is determined. Rainfall is focused on by previous studies on NW China climate change and the pattern conversion and it is considered by few researchers whether the climate is changing from a warm, dry one to a warm, moist pattern by means of rainfall and evaporation in combination, which are two no negligible aspects of water equilibrium on a regional basis. It is apparent that drought is led to by deficient precipitation and evaporation would increase such that it is feasible to take into account the budget of rainfall and precipitation in the study on transformation of arid-moist climate for the NW China, which is of far-reaching strategic and practical significance to NW China socio-economic development. Based on 1960—2003 rainfall and small-sized evaporation pan measurements from 131 stations in NW China, an aridity-wetness homogenized index of rainfall and evaporation is proposed as the crucial components of hydrological equilibrium, with EOF, REOF, tendency analysis, M-K sudden change check and Morlet wavelet analysis, the aridity-wetness evolution characteristic is analyzed over northwest China in recent 44 years. Results show that a regional consistent anomaly serves as the paramount mode of the 1960—2003 yearly dry and wet features, as well as the opposite feature in the NW (NE) to the SE (SW) which is also the important mode for the annual dry and wet abnormality. The space patterns for the arid and moist anomaly include the westerly, tableland and monsoon climates. The annual arid and wet features display greatly humidification trends in the whole NW, westerly and tableland climate zones, with the westerly climate humidification stronger than the trend of the tableland sub-zone, their abrupt change is from arid to moist in the mid-1970s. While the area on the fringe of monsoon climate in the southeast of NW China shows a trend of turning aridity, their abrupt change is from moist to arid in the early 1990s. In spite of the period surge which is not the same as in NW and three key climate zones, inter-decadal oscillation of over 8-year is a main period in all regions, 3—5-year inter-annual surge is also shown in all regions, but the intensity of amplitude is weak.
-
图 4 西北地区及各分区年干湿变化的M-K检测曲线 (a) 西北地区, (b) 西风区, (c) 高原区, (d) 季风区 (图中两直线为α=0.05显著性水平临界值, UF, UB为Mann-Kendall统计量)
Fig. 4 M-K check curve of arid and moist in Northwest China and every sub-region (a) Northwest China, (b) westerly belt region, (c) plateau region, (b) monsoon region (two lines are for 0.05 significance level critical value; UF, UB are M-K statistics)
表 1 EOF分析的前10个特征向量的方差贡献率 (单位:%)
Table 1 The contribute percentage of filed variance first ten PC (unit:%)
表 2 西北地区及各分区年干湿变化的趋势系数
Table 2 Tendency coefficient of arid and moist change in Northwest China and every sub-region
-
[1] 张强, 胡隐樵, 曹晓彦, 等.论西北干旱气候的若干问题.中国沙漠, 2000, 20(4):357-362. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGSS200004002.htm [2] 谢金南, 李栋梁, 董安祥, 等.甘肃省干旱气候变化及其对西部大开发的影响.气候与环境研究, 2002, 7(3):359-369. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHYH200203009.htm [3] 丁永建, 叶伯生, 刘时银.祁连山中部地区40 a来气候变化及其对径流的影响.冰川冻土, 2000, 22(3):193-198. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BCDT200003000.htm [4] 董安祥, 王鹏祥, 林彬, 等.中国气象灾害大典 (甘肃卷).北京:气象出版社, 2005:76-82. [5] 王鹏祥, 王宝鉴, 黄玉霞, 等.青海高原近43年夏季空中水汽分布及演变特征.高原气象, 2006, 26(1):60-65. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX200601007.htm [6] 王鹏祥, 杨金虎.中国西北近45 a来极端高温事件及其对区域性增暖的响应.中国沙漠, 2007, 27(4):649-665. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGSS200704020.htm [7] 施雅风, 沈永平, 胡汝骥.西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨.冰川冻土, 2002, 24(3):219-226. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BCDT200203000.htm [8] 施雅风, 沈永平, 李栋梁, 等.中国西北部气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨.第四纪研究, 2003, 23(2):152-164. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DSJJ200302004.htm [9] 施雅风.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型问题评估.北京:气象出版社, 2003. [10] 王鹏祥, 何金海, 郑有飞, 等.夏季北极涛动和东亚夏季风对西北夏季降水南北差异的影响.地球科学进展, 2007, 22(增刊): 168-173. [11] Ohmura A, Wild M. Is the hydrological cycle accelerating? Science, 2002, 298:1345-1346. doi: 10.1126/science.1078972 [12] Peterson T C, Golubev V S, Groisman P Y. Evaporation losing its strength. Nature, 1995, 377:687-688. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/231221899_Evaporation_Losing_Its_Strength [13] 邱新法, 刘昌明, 曾燕.黄河流域近40 a蒸发量的气候变化特征.自然资源学报, 2003, 18(4):437-441. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZRZX200304006.htm [14] Thomas A. Spatial and temporal characteristics of potential evapotranspiration trends over China. International Journal of Climatology, 2000, 20(4):381-396. doi: 10.1002/(ISSN)1097-0088 [15] 王鹏祥, 杨金虎, 张强, 等.近半个世纪来中国西北地面气候变化基本特征.地球科学进展, 2007, 22(6):649-656. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DXJZ200706013.htm [16] 李栋梁, 谢金南, 王文.中国西北夏季降水特征及其异常分析.大气科学, 1997, 21(3):331-340. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK703.009.htm [17] 谢金南.甘肃省干旱气候变化及其对西部大开发的影响.气候与环境研究, 2002, 7(3):359-369. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHYH200203009.htm [18] 李栋梁, 陈丽平.青藏高原地面加热场强度与东亚环流及西北初夏旱的关系.应用气象学报, 1999, 10(4):383-391. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19900457&flag=1 [19] 谌芸, 李强, 李泽椿.青藏高原东北部强降水天气过程的气候特征分析.应用气象学报, 2006(增刊):98-103. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YYQX2006S1013.htm [20] 刘恒, 钟华平, 顾颖.西北干旱内陆河区水资源利用与绿洲演变规律研究———以石羊河流域下游民勤盆地为例.水科学进展, 2001, 9(3):378-384. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKXJ200103017.htm [21] 施能.气象科研与预报中的多元分析方法.北京:气象出版社, 2002:120-122;143-146. [22] 符淙斌, 王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法.大气科学, 1992, 16(4):482-493. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK199204010.htm [23] 林振山, 邓自旺.子波气候诊断技术的研究.北京:气象出版社, 1999. [24] Cattell R B. The screen test for the number of factor. Mutlivar Res, 1996, 1:245-276. [25] 王鹏祥, 何金海, 郑有飞, 等.夏季北极涛动与西北夏季干湿特征的年代际关系.中国沙漠, 2007, 27(5):883-889. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGSS200705028.htm