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江淮梅雨分区特征的比较研究
Comparative Investigation on Meiyu Parameters in Different Subregions of the Changjiang-Huaihe Valley
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摘要: 对江淮地区63站1957—2003年6—7月平均的月降水、梅雨期降水量和入梅期进行旋转经验正交展开, 将江淮梅雨区分为中心区、东南区和西北区。三子区入梅出梅的早晚顺序依次为东南区、中心区、西北区, 与雨带地理位置的时间变化一致。三子区梅雨参数存在不同的年际、年代际变化特征。在趋势变化上, 西北区与其他两区的差异很明显。中心区和东南区的梅雨长度和梅雨量存在上升趋势, 出梅期推迟; 西北区梅雨参数的变化与中心区、东南区相反。分析江淮各子区梅雨异常所对应的环流形势结果表明:北半球500 hPa高度场各区多雨年减少雨年的差值图上都呈现正负相间的波状结构, 东南区与中心区的正负差值分布型类似, 但比中心区的略偏东和偏南; 西北区与中心区、东南区呈现出相反的形势。各区早入梅年减晚入梅年北半球的500 hPa高度场正负差值分布形势基本类似, 但东南区较中心区偏东, 西北区较之偏西。Abstract: Using the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis of the averaged June to July rainfall field, the Meiyu amount and the Meiyu onset data (MOD) during the years from 1957 to 2003, the Changjiang-Huaihe Valley is divided objectively into three subregions, namely, the center (CEN), the southeast (SE) and the northwest (NW). The time sequence of the Meiyu onset and ending dates is SE, CEN and NW. It is consistent with the temporal change of geographical location of the rain band.The periodic variations of Meiyu parameters are analyzed using the binomial coefficient weighted average method and the Morlet wave analysis.Result shows that different subregions have different periodic variations. The long-term trend of the Meiyu parameters in the NW is obviously different from that in the CEN and the SE. The Meiyu duration and the Meiyu amount in the CEN and the SE are both increasing, the Meiyu ending dates of the above two regions are delaying. The opposite case is found in the NW. The MOD in the SE is advancing, while there is no apparent trend in the CEN and the SE. The atmospheric circulation patterns related to the Meiyu abnormalities of the three subregions are analyzed by using the NCEP monthly data of height fields during the years from 1957 to 2003. The results point out that the composite differences of the 500 hPa height field in the Northern Hemisphere between the more and the less Meiyu years of the three subregions are all of the wavelike structures with positive and negative values in alternation. The distribution of the positive and negative difference centers in the SE subregion is similar to that of the CEN, but with a more eastward and southward shift than the CEN. The wavelike distribution pattern in the NW subregion is opposite to that in the CEN, and it is also opposite to that in the SE at low latitudes and in the regions along the North Pacific, the North America and the North Atlantic.The distribution patterns of the positive and negative composite difference centers in the years with the earlier and the later MOD in the SE and the NW are both similar to that in the CEN. However, the position in the SE has an eastward deflection and that in the NW has a westward shift. The distribution pattern of NW is opposite to that of the SE.
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Key words:
- REOF;
- Meiyu amount anomaly;
- MOD anomaly
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图 1 江淮梅雨区三子区站点分布
Fig. 1 The stations distribution of the three subregions in Changjiang-Huaihe Valley
图 2 梅雨量的标准化距平 (
Fig. 2 The normalized (
图 3 梅雨量的Morlet小波分析图
(左边为小波分析的实部, 右边为能谱)
Fig. 3 The Morlet wave analysis of Meiyu amount
(the left is the real part, the right is the wavelet power spectrum)
图 4 全区 (a) 和东南区 (b) 梅雨量与500 hPa高度场的相关场, 中心区 (c) 和西北区 (d) 多雨年减少雨年500 hPa高度场合成差值
(单位: gpm; 阴影区表示通过0.05显著性检验)
Fig. 4 The correlation coefficient distributions between the Meiyu amount and 500 hPa height field for the whole region (a) and SE (b), composite differences of the 500 hPa height of the more minus the less Meiyu account years for CEN (c) and NW (d)
(unit:gpm; shaded areas denote passing the test of 0.05 level)
图 5 早入梅年减晚入梅500hPa高度场差值图 (单位:gpm)
(a) 中心区, (b) 东南区, (c) 西北区
Fig. 5 Composite differences of the 500hPa height of the earlier minus the later onset years (unit:gpm)
(a) CEN, (b) SE, (b) NW
表 1 三子区各梅雨参数的统计特征
Table 1 The statistic characters of the Meiyu parameters in different subregions
表 2 三子区各梅雨参数之间的相关系数
Table 2 The correlation coefficients between the Meiyu parameters of 3 subregions in Changjian-Huaihe Valley
表 3 江淮梅雨区各子区入梅异常年份表
Table 3 The years of Meiyu onset anomaly of the whole region and the three subregions in Changjiang-Huaihe Valley
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