设为首页
加入收藏
气候变化趋势分析中自相关的检验与去除
The Checking and Removing of the Autocorrelation in Climatic Time Series
-
摘要: 受资料本身、分析方法及未来排放情景假设等因素影响, 气候变暖幅度尚存在较大的不确定性。从分析方法入手, 探讨气象观测序列可能存在的自相关及其对气候变化趋势分析的不确定性影响。引入了Durbin-Watson一阶自相关检验方法对气象观测序列进行检验, 并用Cochrane-Orcutt方法去除存在的自相关。分析发现:浙江省平湖市气温序列存在的自相关放大了该站气温的升温趋势, 并且虚高了气温变化趋势的显著性水平。因此, 对资料序列进行自相关检验与去除是十分必要的。
-
关键词:
- 自相关;
- Durbin-Watson一阶自相关检验方法;
- OLS趋势分析;
- 平湖市
Abstract: It is well known that global climate is warming over the past decades. And there are great uncertainties for the assessment of warming magnitude caused by meteorological data itself, different methods adopted, hypothesis of future emission scenario, and other factors as well. Ordinary least squares (OLS) is usually used to analyze the trend of climate change by fitting linear regression to the time series of meteorological observation. And the hypothesis of independence should be met by the random error of the time series, otherwise autocorrelation exists in the time series and uncertainties will appear in the results.Unfortunately research on the autocorrelation of climate change is weak. So taking the temperature observation (including mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature) of Pinghu meteorological station in Zhejiang Province during 1954—2004 as an example, the autocorrelation possibly existing in time series and its influence on the trend analysis of climate change are studied. And the method of Durbin-Watson test is introduced to check whether the autocorrelation exists or not in the time series during the utilization of OLS in the trend analysis of temperature change. And if so, the method of Cochrane-Orcutt is adopted to remove the autocorrelation. Analysis indicates that the warming trend is magnified by the existence of autocorrelation in Pinghu temperature time series, and the confidence level of warming trend is improperly increased, by which uncertainties of clim ate change is added. In a word, it is indispensable to check and remove the autocorrelation of climatic time series, and much more work should be done further to test the autocorrelation and its possible impacts on the uncertainties of warming forecasting at regional and global scale.-
Key words:
- autocorrelation;
- Durbin-Watson test;
- OLS trend analysis;
- Pinghu City
-
表 1 1954—2004年平湖市气象观测站气温趋势分析
Table 1 Trend analysis on the temperature in Pinghu during 1954—2004
表 2 1981—2004年平湖市气象观测站气温趋势分析
Table 2 Trend analysis on the temperature in Pinghu during 1981—2004
-
[1] Houghton J T, Ding Y, Griggs D J, et al. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001, 105-130. [2] Allen M R, Stott P A, Mitchell J FB, et al. Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change. Nature, 2000, 407: 617-620. doi: 10.1038/35036559 [3] Stott P A, Kettleborough J A. Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise. Nature, 2002, 416: 723-726. doi: 10.1038/416723a [4] Quayle R G, Easterling D R, Karl T R, et al. Effects of recent thermometer changes in the cooperative station network. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1991, 72: 1718-1724. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1991)072<1718:EORTCI>2.0.CO;2 [5] Folland C K, Rayner N A, Brown S J, et al. Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861. Geophys Res Lett, 2001, 28: 2621-2624. doi: 10.1029/2001GL012877 [6] 吴增祥.气象台站历史沿革信息及其对观测资料序列均一性影响的初步分析.应用气象学报, 2005, 16(4):461-467. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20050458&flag=1 [7] 刘小宁, 张洪政, 李庆祥.不同方法计算的气温平均值差异分析.应用气象学报, 2005, 16(3):345-356. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20050343&flag=1 [8] Neter J, Wasserman W, Kutner M H. Applied Linear Regression Models. Boston: IRWIN, 1989. [9] 白雪梅, 赵松山.关于自相关若干问题的研究.现代财经, 2002, 22(11):8-11. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XCXB200211001.htm [10] 苏文兵.对DW检验法的补充和改进.数理统计与管理, 1997, 16(2):37-41. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SLTJ702.008.htm [11] 平湖市政府网. 乍浦镇. http://www.pinghu.gov.cn/gaikuang/gkxzqhzp.html. [12] 丁金才, 叶其欣, 丁长根.上海地区高温分布的诊断分析.应用气象学报, 2001, 12(4):494-499. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20010464&flag=1 [13] 丁金才, 张志凯, 奚红, 等.上海地区盛夏高温分布和热岛效应的初步研究.大气科学, 2002, 26(3):412-420. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200203011.htm [14] 束炯, 江田汉, 杨晓明.上海城市热岛效应的特征分析.上海环境科学, 2000, 19(11):532-534. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SHHJ200011018.htm [15] 苗曼倩, 唐有华.长江三角洲夏季海陆风与热岛环流的相互作用及城市化的影响.高原气象, 1998, 17(3):281-289. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX803.007.htm [16] 刘洪利, 李维亮, 周秀骥, 等.长江三角洲地区区域气候模式的发展和检验.应用气象学报, 2005, 16(1):24-34. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20050104&flag=1 [17] Karl T R, Jones P D, Knight R W, et al. A new perspective on recent global warming: Asymmetric trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1993, 74 (6) : 1007-1023. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1993)074<1007:ANPORG>2.0.CO;2 [18] 威廉 H 格林. Econometric Analysis (经济计量分析). 王明舰, 王永宏, 译. 北京: 中国社会科学出版社, 1998. [19] Brohan P, Kennedy J J, Haris I, et al. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new dataset from 1850. J Geophys Res, 2006, 111, D12106, doi:10. 1029/2005JD006548. [20] http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/gtc2005, csv. [21] 任国玉, 徐铭志, 初子莹, 等.近54年中国地面气温变化.气候与环境研究, 2005, 10(4):717-727. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHYH200504002.htm [22] 唐国利, 任国玉.近百年中国地表气温变化趋势的再分析.气候与环境研究, 2005, 10(4):791-798. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHYH200504010.htm [23] 任国玉, 初子莹, 周雅清, 等.中国气温变化研究最新进展.气候与环境研究, 2005, 10(4):701-716. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHYH200504001.htm [24] 翟盘茂, 任福民.中国近四十年最高最低温度变化.气象学报, 1997, 55(4):418-429. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB704.003.htm [25] 唐红玉, 翟盘茂, 王振宇.1951-2002年中国平均最高、最低气温及日较差变化.气候与环境研究, 2005, 10(4):728-735. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHYH200504003.htm [26] 李庆祥, 李伟, 鞠晓慧.1998年以来中国气温持续极端偏暖的事实.科技导报, 2006, 24(4):37-40. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KJDB200604015.htm [27] Easterling D R, Horton B, Jones P D, et al. Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe. Science, 1997, 277:364-367. doi: 10.1126/science.277.5324.364 [28] Karl T R, Kukla G, Razuvayev V N, et al. Global warming: Evidence for asymmetric diurnal temperature change. Geophys Res Lett, 1991, 18(12): 2253-2256. doi: 10.1029/91GL02900 [29] 史岚, 王翠花, 李雄, 等.中国近50a来日最低气温的时间演变特征.气象科学, 2003, 23(3):300-307. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKX200303005.htm [30] 于淑秋.近50年我国日平均气温的气候变化.应用气象学报, 2005, 16(6):787-793. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=200506102&flag=1 -
点击查看大图
表(2)计量
- 摘要浏览量: 4080
- HTML全文浏览量: 705
- PDF下载量: 2654
- 被引次数: 0
下载:
