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长江三角洲地区降水资料的均一性检验与订正试验
The Experimental Detecting and Adjusting of the Precipitation Data Homogeneity in the Yangtze Delta
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摘要: 该文对1961—2002年我国长江三角洲地区36个地面观测站的年、月降水资料序列作均一性检验和订正试验, 以探讨我国年、月降水气候观测序列的均一化方法和思路。该文首先从与待检台站序列相关性较好、台站距离较近的台站中选取了若干站点作为待检台站的参考台站建立参考序列, 采用传统的标准正态检验 (SNHT) 方法, 对所研究的地区年降水的均一性进行了检验。检验结果显示, 该地区降水序列中存在非均一性现象。考虑到所选地区站点密度仍然不够, 文中还采用了一种不依赖于参考台站的思路, 对上述检验结果进行了进一步确认后, 最后对不连续序列进行了逐月订正调整。对比分析表明, 对序列的订正较为合理。在已有的研究基础上, 结合我国台站网络实际特点, 提出结合不同思路来研究我国降水量数据均一性是必要的和可行的, 应用该思路对于我国降水序列进行均一性研究具有一定的合理性和应用前景。Abstract: Annual and monthly precipitation data over 36 stations in Yangtze Delta are chosen in the experimental homogeneity studies. It is expected to find a method to homogenize the annual and monthly historical precipitation series over China. Two road maps are adopted to test the homogeneity of the precipitation series, one is a traditional standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) and the other is a method based on EOF of filtered normalized monthly precipitation series which do not rely on the reference series. In the first method, the first step is to create a homogeneous reference series for each station with series from those stations that are near the checking station and have good correlations with the candidate series. Then the second step is to test the homogeneity of the candidate series with SNHT. Testing results show that some inhomogeneities exist in the precipitation data series in the selected region. Although the stations distribution is well-proportioned and the landform is relatively even in the study region, the density of the stations in the region is not enough, the references series might be questioned. Then the later references-independent method is used to check the potential discontinuities detected by SNHT. The precipitation data are normalized by calculating the cubic root of the monthly value, and the variations under inter-annual time scales are filtered. Then EOF is conducted to the fields where month is used as variables, the abrupt change points in time coefficients of the significant first eigenvectors are detected as the discontinuities of the series. Only those discontinuities which are detected by both of the two methods are regarded as real inhomogeneities. Finally, the confirmed discontinuities are adjusted in both annual and monthly series. Comparison analysis shows that the adjustment is reasonable and acceptable. Based on the earlier studies and operational practices of the network in China, a combination of the two different methods is proved to be necessary and possible, and it shows reasonability and application values in the homogeneity study of precipitation series in China, especially for the regions where the station densities are not enough. Further more, stations metadata are relied little on by these methods. In some context, the puzzles of lack of station metadata of precipitation data are avoided by these methods.
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Key words:
- precipitation;
- SNHT method;
- inhomogeneity;
- detecting
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图 1 长江三角洲地区站点分布图 (站号)
Fig. 1 Stations distribution of the Yangtze Delta (station number)
图 2 南京年降水量比值序列 (a) 和Ts值序列 (b)
Fig. 2 Annual precipitation ratio series (a) and corresponding Ts series (b) in Nanjing
图 3 六安年降水量比值序列 (a) 和Ts值序列 (b)
Fig. 3 Annual precipitation ratio series (a) and corresponding Ts series (b) in Liu' an
图 4 英山年降水量比值序列和Ts值序列
Fig. 4 Annual precipitation ratio series (a) and corresponding Ts series (b) in Yingshan
图 5 定海站月降水 (经5年滤波) EOF展开第一时间系数
Fig. 5 The first time coefficients of EOF of the monthly precipitation (5 years filtered) for Dinghai
图 6 订正前 (虚线)、后 (实线) 的年降水量变化曲线
Fig. 6 Raw (dashed line) and adjusted (soid line) annual precipitation curves
表 1 0.1, 0.05显著性水平的Tmaxs临界值表
Table 1 The Tmaxs threshold value of 0.05, 0.1 significance levels
表 2 定海各月降水量的订正值
Table 2 Adjusting values for each month of Dinghai
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