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2007年淮河暴雨洪涝的气象水文特征
Meteorological and Hydrological Characteristics of Flood Related Torrential Rain over Huaihe River Basin in 2007
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摘要: 利用常规气象和水文资料, 分析了2007年淮河洪涝期间的气象水文特征, 探讨了淮河暴雨致洪原因。结果表明: 2007年淮河入梅后经历了7次暴雨和大暴雨过程, 其中导致淮河洪涝的强降雨主要出现在2007年6月29日—7月10日的4场强暴雨过程。大尺度的环流分析表明:淮河的强降水出现在大尺度环流形势相对稳定的梅雨形势下, 副热带高压的稳定对于强雨带的建立影响最明显; 淮河干流的水位流量变化呈现出上游水位高, 汛情严重的特征。王家坝的水位经历了两次快速上涨后超过保证水位, 水位的变化与淮河强降雨、尤其是淮河上游强降雨过程有较好的对应关系。与历史上淮河洪涝年比较发现:2007年淮河梅雨期的总降水量低于历史上淮河洪涝年的1954年、1991年和2003年的降水量, 为历史第4位; 淮河干流的水位则超过了1991年和2003年, 为历史第2位, 上游降水量大导致了淮河出现1954年以来的高水位。Abstract: Based on the regular meteorological and hydrological data during the Huaihe River Basin torrential rain in 2007, the torrential rainfall process, the related large scale atmospheric circulation pattern and the evolvement of the flood as the meteorological and hydrological characteristics are analyzed. The conclusion hereby is drawn for the cause of flood happening by the torrential rainfall. The conclusion shows that the Huaihe River Basin flood is mainly related with seven torrential rainfalls. The later four torrential rainfalls are recognized as the significant factor to bring the Huaihe River Basin flood which happen during June 29 to July 10. Although the former three torrential rainfalls are not strong and not recognized as the main cause of flood, the water increase is still led to and becomes the hidden trouble of the whole valley heavy flooding, because the present of precipitation center is mainly in the northern Huaihe Basin where the anabranch of Huaihe is densely located. The large scale atmospheric circulation pattern shows that the torrential rain in Huaihe River Basin occurs under the quite typical Meiyu situation, and the stability of subtropical high has a great impact on the establishment of strong rain-belt. The hydrological data analysis reveals that the higher water line as well as the less water fluxes is on the upriver of Huaihe River Basin which is associated with the severe flood. The increase of the water level is directly led to by the heavy rainfall in the main Huaihe River Basin, and the variable of the water level is associated with the heavy rainfall especially in the upriver of Huaihe River. The rapid increase of the water level of Wangjia-dam is resultedin by the heavy rainfall in the upriver of Huaihe River Basin 2 days later, then the water level of Wangjia-dam exceeds the dangerous level after 2 phases rapidly increase. Based on the comparison and analysis with historical flood year of Huaihe River Basin, the result shows that the accumulated precipitation during the period of Meiyu in Huaihe River Basin in 2007 is the fourth heaviest in history, which is only less than the flood year of 1954, 1991 and 2003. Nevertheless, the water level in the main Huaihe River Basin is higher than that in 1991 and 2003, which is the second in historical record since 1954.The water level of Wangjia-dam is associated with the area rainfall of Wangjia-dam-Dapoling and Dabie-mountain valleys. The high water level of Wangjia-dam is caused by the heavy rainfall in the upriver of the Huaihe River Basin, which reflects the hydrological characteristics caused by the special geographical condition: The rainfall in the upriver is the main factor to bring the high water level in the main Huaihe River Basin.
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图 1 2007年6月19日—7月10日淮河流域总降水量分布 (单位: mm) (a) 及降水距平百分率 (单位:%) (b)
Fig. 1 Accumulated precipitation (unit: mm)(a) and percentage of precipitation anomaly (unit:%) (b) in Huaihe River Basin during June 19—July 10, 2007
图 2 2007年6—7月逐日500 hPa副高脊线及雨带位置 (a) 及西风环流指数 (b) 演变
Fig. 2 The temporal variation of subtropical high ridge at 500 hPa and rain belt (a) as well as westerly index (b)
图 3 2007年6—7月淮河干流水位及流量逐日演变图
Fig. 3 Temporal variation of water level and flux from June to July in 2007
图 4 2003年6—7月淮河干流水位及流量逐日演变图
Fig. 4 Temporal variation of water level and fluxes from June to July in 2003
图 5 1953—2007年淮河流域6月1日—7月26日的平均降水量
Fig. 5 The mean precipitation from June 1 to July 26 during 1953—2007 in Huaihe River Basin
图 6 2007年6—7月淮河上游流域面雨量与王家坝水位逐日变化
Fig. 6 The area rainfall in the upriver of Huiahe River Basin and the water level change of Wangjia-dam from June to July in 2007
表 1 2007年汛期淮河流域强降水天气过程
Table 1 Main precipitation processes during June 19—July 9, 2007 in the Huaihe River Basin
表 2 淮河流域梅雨期各子流域的累积面雨量分布 (单位: mm)
Table 2 Accumulated area rainfall distribution in the sub-valleys of Huiahe River Basin during the period of Meiyu (unit: mm)
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