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近50年我国探空温度序列均一化及变化趋势
Homogeneity and Long-term Trend Analysis on Radiosonde Temperature Time Series in China During Recent 50 Years
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摘要: 利用1958—2005年我国116个站探空温度序列研究了我国高空温度变化趋势。首先通过静力学质量控制和两相回归法对原始序列进行了均一化处理。我国探空温度序列存在明显的间断点, 间断点的订正对于序列的趋势影响较为显著。缺测率是影响我国探空温度序列应用性的重要因子, 也是区域平均趋势统计中台站取舍的指标, 减少台站总数会削弱我国对流层升温和平流层降温的变化趋势。分析表明: 70%作为最小资料有效率标准最为合理。为满足最小资料有效率, 选取92个站统计我国高空温度变化趋势的区域平均值。结果表明: 1958-2005年, 平流层下层和对流层上层降温, 对流层中、低层升温; 高空温度变化趋势与研究时段明显相关, 1958-1978年我国高空大气整层均为降温; 1979—2005年, 对流层中低层升温最为明显, 增暖的幅度随高度增加而减小, 400 hPa以上各层转为降温。对流层的升温始于20世纪80年代, 升温幅度与全球尺度的平均值有所不同。Abstract: In order to study long-term trend of upper air temperature in China, radiosonde temperature time series during 1958-2005 at 116 Chinese stations are examined.Firstly, uncertainties in the time series caused by artificial errors and breakpoints are detected by quality control and homogenization procedure. Original radionsonde temperature time series at 7 levels are adjusted by employing hydrostatic and two-phase-regression (TPR) method.The identification results show significant discontinuities in the studied time series, especially in earlier period (1960s-1970s). Parts of the break points are documented by station' s metadata, which contributes to the changes of instrument model or method.Significant impact on long-term trends of original time series is caused by the adjustments which vary with different periods. The cooling trends in mid-upper troposphere during 1958-1978 are weakened by homogenization; also, cooling trends in lower stratosphere are enhanced and warming trends at 400 hPa and 500 hPa during 1979-2005 are weakened.Missing rate, as an important factor influencing the utilization of radiosonde temperature time series in China, is a reasonable index for sampling stations to assess regional average trend. Sampling by low missing rate (high data requirement) results in reduced number of potential stations. By analysis on averaged trend profile with different minimum data requirements (MDR), it is found that warming trends in low troposphere are enhanced and cooling trends in upper troposphere and low stratosphere are weakened by the decreasing number of stations in accordance with low missing rate or high M DR of stations. Critical maximum missing rate is suggested as 30% (MDR as 70%) for examining reliability of the time series. Averaged temperature time series in China are deduced by 92 radiosonde stations, which are selected by meeting maximum missing rate (or minimum data requirement by MDR).Homogenous radiosonde temperature time series show that trends of upper air temperature in China are generally consistent with that at global scale but with some discrepancies. During 1958-2005, atmospheric temperatures in China tend to decrease in the low stratosphere and upper troposphere, and increase in the middle and low troposphere. The trends of upper air vary with different periods. For 1958-1978, cooling trends in the entire atmosphere are similar to those at global scale. During 1979-2005, obvious warming occurs in the low and mid-troposphere; the amplitude of warming trend weakens with the increase of altitude and shifts to cooling trend above 400 hPa. Analysis on decadal averaged temperatures anomalies shows that cooling in low stratosphere has occurred since 1980s and enhances in 1990s and warming in midlow troposphere below 500 hPa has occurred since 1970s and significantly warming in the layer between 700 hPa and 300 hPa has occurred since 1980s.
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Key words:
- radiosonde temperature;
- homogenization;
- trend
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图 1 不同MDR的1958-2005(a) 和1979-2005年 (b) 我国高空温度平均趋势廓线
Fig. 1 Comparison of mean vertical trend profiles with different minimum percentage of data requirements for periods of 1958-2005(a) and 1979-2005(b)
图 2 上海站 (58362) 850~100 hPa季节平均温度距平序列
(实心圆:找到的间断点; 细直线:仪器换型; 点划线:方法更新)
Fig. 2 Seasonal temperature anomalies of Shanghai station (58362) at 850-100 hPa
(filled circles denote detected break points; thin lines denote in strument mode change; dot-dased lines denote correction method change)
图 3 我国探空温度原始序列与订正后序列各不同时段趋势的平均廓线
Fig. 3 Comparisons of mean trends between original and adjusted radiosonde temperature time series for different periods
图 4 1958-2005年不同层次温度变化趋势 (单位: K/10a)
(圆表示升温, 方框表示降温; 实心表示达到95%的信度)
Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of in situ temperature trends for 1958-2005 at different levels (unit:K/10a)
(circles denote warming trends; squares denote cooling trends; filled circles and squares denote level over 95%)
表 1 我国探空温度序列不同时段最小资料有效率（MDR）的变化与台站数的关系
Table 1 The number of percentage stations meeting to various MDR in China
表 2 不同时段不同层次我国平均温度变化趋势
Table 2 Radiosonde temperature trends averaged in China during different periods
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