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两类天气预报评分问题研究及一种新评分方法

罗阳 赵伟 翟景秋

罗阳, 赵伟, 翟景秋. 两类天气预报评分问题研究及一种新评分方法. 应用气象学报, 2009, 20(2): 129-136..
引用本文: 罗阳, 赵伟, 翟景秋. 两类天气预报评分问题研究及一种新评分方法. 应用气象学报, 2009, 20(2): 129-136.
Luo Yang, Zhao Wei, Zhai Jingqiu. Dichotomous weather forecasts score research and a new measure of score. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(2): 129-136.
Citation: Luo Yang, Zhao Wei, Zhai Jingqiu. Dichotomous weather forecasts score research and a new measure of score. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(2): 129-136.

两类天气预报评分问题研究及一种新评分方法

Dichotomous Weather Forecasts Score Research and a New Measure of Score

  • 摘要: 探讨了预报评价的意义及应遵循的原则, 对常用的几种两类预报评分方法进行分析, 指出其应用的局限性, 得到一个判定所作预报水平是否高于随机预报、具有预报技巧的简易判别式; 提出评分权重的概念, 指出以往评分存在问题的根源是评分权重分配不当, 使评分结果的真实性受到影响, 评分无可比性, 进而提出一种考虑了评分权重的新评分方法。新评分方法满足预报评价的原则, 侧重于对两类事件中事件概率较小一方预报效果的评估, 评分结果不受事件概率影响, 具有可比性。对比分析表明:新方法比其他方法优越, 能更准确地反映预报水平, 使不同季节、不同地域的预报评分可进行比较, 是一个通用的评分方法。
  • 图  1  事件A的评分权重分布示意图

    Fig. 1  Score weight distribution of Event A

    图  2  SFTICSA, 相互关系示意图

    Fig. 2  Interrelation for SFTtoICSAand

    表  1  两类预报列联表

    Table  1  Contingency table for dichotomous (yes/no) forecasts

    表  2  两类预报评价方法

    Table  2  Verification methods for dichotomous (yes/no) forecasts

    表  3  Finley预报列联表

    Table  3  Contingency table for Finley's forecasts

    表  4  预报实例及评分研究

    Table  4  Examples of forecast and score research

    表  5  预报水平变化时各种评对比分析

    Table  5  Comparative analysis of scores at changed forecast level

    表  6  各类评分特性分析

    Table  6  Characteristic analysis of scores

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2008-04-08
  • 修回日期:  2008-12-11
  • 刊出日期:  2009-04-30

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