留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

两类天气预报评分问题研究及一种新评分方法

罗阳 赵伟 翟景秋

罗阳, 赵伟, 翟景秋. 两类天气预报评分问题研究及一种新评分方法. 应用气象学报, 2009, 20(2): 129-136..
引用本文: 罗阳, 赵伟, 翟景秋. 两类天气预报评分问题研究及一种新评分方法. 应用气象学报, 2009, 20(2): 129-136.
Luo Yang, Zhao Wei, Zhai Jingqiu. Dichotomous weather forecasts score research and a new measure of score. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(2): 129-136.
Citation: Luo Yang, Zhao Wei, Zhai Jingqiu. Dichotomous weather forecasts score research and a new measure of score. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(2): 129-136.

两类天气预报评分问题研究及一种新评分方法

Dichotomous Weather Forecasts Score Research and a New Measure of Score

  • 摘要: 探讨了预报评价的意义及应遵循的原则, 对常用的几种两类预报评分方法进行分析, 指出其应用的局限性, 得到一个判定所作预报水平是否高于随机预报、具有预报技巧的简易判别式; 提出评分权重的概念, 指出以往评分存在问题的根源是评分权重分配不当, 使评分结果的真实性受到影响, 评分无可比性, 进而提出一种考虑了评分权重的新评分方法。新评分方法满足预报评价的原则, 侧重于对两类事件中事件概率较小一方预报效果的评估, 评分结果不受事件概率影响, 具有可比性。对比分析表明:新方法比其他方法优越, 能更准确地反映预报水平, 使不同季节、不同地域的预报评分可进行比较, 是一个通用的评分方法。
  • 图  1  事件A的评分权重分布示意图

    Fig. 1  Score weight distribution of Event A

    图  2  SFTICSA, 相互关系示意图

    Fig. 2  Interrelation for SFTtoICSAand

    表  1  两类预报列联表

    Table  1  Contingency table for dichotomous (yes/no) forecasts

    表  2  两类预报评价方法

    Table  2  Verification methods for dichotomous (yes/no) forecasts

    表  3  Finley预报列联表

    Table  3  Contingency table for Finley's forecasts

    表  4  预报实例及评分研究

    Table  4  Examples of forecast and score research

    表  5  预报水平变化时各种评对比分析

    Table  5  Comparative analysis of scores at changed forecast level

    表  6  各类评分特性分析

    Table  6  Characteristic analysis of scores

  • [1] Hughes P.The great leap forward.Weatherwise, 1994, 47: 22-27.
    [2] Whitnah D R.A History of the United States Weather Bureau. Illinois:University of Illinois Press, 1961: 1-267.
    [3] Burton J.Robert Fitzroy and the early history of the Meteorological Office.BrJ Hist Sci, 1986, 19: 147-176. doi:  10.1017/S0007087400022949
    [4] Finley J P. Tornado predictions. Amer Meteor J, 1884, 1: 85-88. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/ns-4/80/126
    [5] Murphy A H.The Finley affair : A signal event in the history of forecast verification. Wea Forecasting, 1996, 11: 3-20. doi:  10.1175/1520-0434(1996)011<0003:TFAASE>2.0.CO;2
    [6] Gilbert G K.Finley's tornado predictions.Amer Meteor J, 1884, 1: 166-172.
    [7] Palmer W C, Allen R A. Note on the Accuracy of Forecasts Concerning the Rain Problem.US Weather Bureau, 1949:1-4.
    [8] Donaldson R J, Dyer R M, Krauss M J. An Objective Evaluator of Techniques for Predicting Severe Weather Events. 9th Conf Severe Local Storms, Norman, Oklahoma, Amer Meteor Soc, 1975:321-326. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/showciting?cid=3237109
    [9] Schaefer J T. The critical success index as an indicator of warning skill. Wea Forecasting, 1990, 5:570-575. doi:  10.1175/1520-0434(1990)005<0570:TCSIAA>2.0.CO;2
    [10] Black T L.The new NMC mesoscale eta model:Description and forecast examples. Wea Forecasting, 1994, 9: 265-278. doi:  10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009<0265:TNNMEM>2.0.CO;2
    [11] Peirce C S.The numerical measure of the success of prediction. Science, 1884, 4:453-454. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/showciting?cid=1558742
    [12] Hanssen A W, Kuipers W J A. On the relationship between the frequency of rain and various meteorological parameters. Mededeelingen en Verhandelingen, 1965, 81:2-15. http://www.worldcat.org/title/on-the-relationship-between-the-frequency-of-rain-and-various-meteorological-parameters-with-reference-to-the-problem-of-objective-forecasting/oclc/37281102
    [13] Murphy A H, Daan H.Forecast Evaluation∥Murphy A H, Katz R W.Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences. Westview : Westview Press, 1985: 379-437.
    [14] Flueck J A. A Study of Some Measures of Forecast Verification. 10th Conf Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Science, Edmonton, Alberta, Amer Meteor Soc, 1987: 69-73.
    [15] Doolittle M H.The verification of predictions.Amer Meteor J, 1885, 2:327-329.
    [16] Doolittle M H.Association ratios. Bull Philos Soc Washington, 1888, 10:83-87;94-96.
    [17] Heidke P.Berechnung des Erfolges und der Gǜte der Windstärkevorhersagen im Sturmwarnungdienst (Calculation of the success and goodness of strong wind forecasts in the storm warning service). Geogr Ann Stockholm, 1926, 8: 301-349.
    [18] Murphy A H, Winkler R L.A general framework for forecast verification.Mon Wea Rev, 1987, 115:1330-1338. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1330:AGFFFV>2.0.CO;2
    [19] Murphy A H. What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting.Wea Forecasting, 1993, 8:281-293. doi:  10.1175/1520-0434(1993)008<0281:WIAGFA>2.0.CO;2
    [20] 张军, 葛军, 田俊杰, 等.概率天气预报及其应用.北京:气象出版社, 1998: 127-137.
    [21] 丁金才.天气预报评分方法评述.南京气象学院学报, 1995, 18(1):143-150. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NJQX501.021.htm
    [22] 新田尚, 立平良三, 市桥英辅.宁松, 译.最新天气预报技术.北京:气象出版社, 1997: 145-146.
    [23] Brownlee K A.Statistical Theory and Methodology in Science and Engineering (2nd ed). John Wiley and Sons, 1965.
    [24] Doswell C A Ⅲ, Davies-Jones R P, Keller D L.On summary measures of skill in rare event forecasting based on contingency tables. Wea Forecasting, 1990, 5:576-585. doi:  10.1175/1520-0434(1990)005<0576:OSMOSI>2.0.CO;2
    [25] 赵有娟, 赵康林, 王小虎.涿州地区冬半年辐射雾的预报.军事气象水文, 2005, (6) : 32-33.
    [26] 宋伟, 雷显飞, 宋作义.东北平原夏季雷雨预报.航空气象, 2005, (2): 31-34.
  • 加载中
图(2) / 表(6)
计量
  • 摘要浏览量:  5063
  • HTML全文浏览量:  895
  • PDF下载量:  3710
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2008-04-08
  • 修回日期:  2008-12-11
  • 刊出日期:  2009-04-30

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回