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长江中下游梅雨与北太平洋大气热源诊断分析
Diagnosis Analysis on Relationship Between the Atmospheric Heat Source in the Northwest Pacific Ocean and the Meiyu of Mid-lower Reaches of the Yangtze
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摘要: 利用长江中下游1954-2001年梅雨量资料和NCEP/NCAR 1954-2001年逐日高度场、风场、比湿场和地面气压场资料, 采用EOF分解、合成分析、SVD分解等方法, 详细讨论了北太平洋大气热源与长江中下游梅雨的关系。结果表明:西北太平洋大气热源与长江中下游梅雨量存在显著负相关, 东太平洋大气热源与长江中下游梅雨量存在显著正相关, 通过信度为95%的Monte-Carlo检验, 具体表现为当菲律宾群岛附近洋面、西太平洋暖池区及西北太平洋西风飘流区大气热源异常增加 (减少) 时, 赤道中东太平洋大气热源异常偏低 (偏高), 会造成长江中下游梅雨异常偏少 (偏多), 反之亦然, 合成分析、点相关分析和SVD的分析结果完全一致。Abstract: Based on the precipitation of Meiyu at 25 stations of mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze and the daily reanalysis geopotential height, wind field, humidity field and surface pressure field data (2.5°×2.5°) from 1954 to 2001, the relationship between the atmospheric heat source in the North Pacific Ocean and the abnormality of Meiyu precipitaion of mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze is investigated in terms of the Z index methold, empirical orthogonal function (EOF), composite analysis, singular value decomposition (SVD), and so on.The results of Z index methold indicate that there are notable multi (shored) Meiyu precipitation on mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze during the Meiyu period. There are 8 years in which the Meiyu precipitation is abnormally more and 6 years in which the Meiyu precipitation is abnormally less. The first mode of EOF shows the ENSO mode of the atmospheric heat source of North Pacific Ocean on mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze during the Meiyu period which express specifically the positive (negative) correlation between the atmospheric heat source in the mid-east Pacific Ocean and the north Pacific Ocean.The second mode of EOF shows the abnormal mode of the atmospheric heat source on the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze during the Meiyu period which represents specifictly the positive (negative) correlation between the atmospheric heat source in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the north Pacific Ocean of the middle-high latitudes. The results of SVD show that there are notable correlation between the Meiyu precipitation in the good (poor) Meiyu year and the atmospheric heat source in the Pacific Ocean. Through Monte-Carlo test at 95%, it shows there is positive (negative) correlation between the atmospheric heat source in the western (eastern) Pacific Ocean and the precipitation on mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze. When the SSTA around the Philippine island ocean and in the north-west Pacific Ocean are marked increasing (decreasing), convective activity is vigorous (weaken), the atmospheric heat in the north-west Pacific Ocean is increasing (decreasing), so the atmospheric heat in the eastern Pacific Ocean is decreasing (increasing), while the precipitation is marked increasing (decreasing) on mid-lower reaches of Yangtze river, and vice verse. The results of composite analysis and correlation analysis and SVD are identical congruent.
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Key words:
- Meiyu;
- atmospheric heat source;
- Z index method;
- EOF;
- SVD
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图 1 长江中下游25站空间分布
Fig. 1 The spatial distribution of 25 stations in mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze
图 2 长江中下游梅雨量Z指数标准化距平的时间变化
(柱线为 Z指数标准化距平, 虚线为选择标准线)
Fig. 2 The time variation of Z index of Meiyu precipitation in mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze from 1954 to 2001
(the secular changes of Z index is bar; selected normalization line is dash)
图 3 长江中下游梅雨期北太平洋大气热源EOF分解前2个模态的空间分布 (a) 第 1 模态, (b) 第 2 模态
Fig. 3 The spatial distributions of the first model (a) and the second model (b) of EOF for atmospheric heat source in the Northern Pacific Ocean
图 4 长江中下游丰梅年 (a) 、枯梅年(b) 北太平洋大气热源的空间分布以及丰梅年与枯梅年大气热源差值场 (c) （单位：W·m-2）
Fig. 4 The distribution of atmospheric heat source and their different fields in the Northern Pacific Ocean(unit: W · m-2) (a) the rich years, (b) the poor years, (c) the different fields of the rich years minus the poor years
图 5 长江中下游梅雨量与北太平洋大气热源的相关分布
(阴影区通过信度为 95%的Monte-Carlo检验)
Fig. 5 The correlation between the precipitation in mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze and the atmospheric heat source in the Northern Pacific Ocean
(shaded areas denote passing the test of 95% level)
图 6 长江中下游梅雨量与北太平洋大气热源SVD分解第1模态异性相关系数及相应的时间系数
(阴影区通过信度为95%的Monte-Carlo检验) (a)北太平洋大气热源, (b) 梅雨量, (c) 时间系数
Fig. 6 The hetero-correlation of the first mode of SVD for the atmospheric heat source in the Northern Pacific Ocean (a) and the precipitation in mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze (b) with their time coefficients
(c)(shaded areas denote passing the test of 99% level)
表 1 北太平洋大气热源与长江中下游梅雨量SVD分解前3个模态数据信息
Table 1 The first three mode data information of SVD from the atmospheric heat source in the Northern Pacific Ocean and the precipitation in mid-lower reaches of Yangtze
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