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北京奥运交通路段精细预报
The Subtle Weather Forecast of the Highway Traffic During 2008 Beijing Olympic Games
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摘要: 利用2007年6月1日-9月30日北京奥运交通路段27个自动气象站（含9个路面自动气象站）的监测资料，对各自动气象站的气象要素与北京市观象台同期气象要素进行统计相关分析，得出97个一元线性关系式，其各气象要素的相关系数（最高气温为0.9103~0.9884，最低气温为0.8777~0.9883，相对湿度为0.7499~0.9682，路面环境最高气温与路面最高温度为0.8502~0.9288，路面环境最低气温与路面最低温度为0.9171~0.9851）均通过Fα=0.01的检验。2008年8月北京奥运会期间，在北京市气象台短期预报产品的基础上，根据线性回归关系式，生成交通路段客观预报产品，并应用于服务。Abstract: During 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, the short-term weather forecast and service for Beijing ring roads and highways is very important for people at home and abroad, and the task is undertaken by Beijing Weather Science and Technology Service Center.Statics analysis is done to check the correlation of observed weather factors of Beijing Observatory Station and 27 automatic weather stations at Beijing traffic section, 9 road surface automatic weather stations included. As a result, 97 simple linear equations are set up with correlation coefficients of each weather factors passing 0.01 level test. The highest air temperature, lowest air temperature, relative humidity correlation coefficients between automatic weather stations and Beijing Observatory Station are 0.9103--0.9884, 0.8777--0.9883, and 0.7499--0.9682. The correlation coefficient between the highest air temperature on freeway and the highest road surface temperature is 0.8502--0.9288. The correlation coefficient between the lowest air temperature and the lowest road surface temperature is 0.9171--0.9851.All linear equations are integrated into the Traffic Weather Forecast Platform, which could generate 5 short-term spatial subtle weather forecast products of the Second Ring Road, the Third Ring Road, the Fourth Ring Road, the Fifth Ring Road in 4 directions and 5 freeways as well. So the efficiency is greatly improved. These forecast products are published by newspaper, broadcast and 121 weather telephone service. During 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, based on short-term forecast products of Beijing Meteorological Observatory and the linear regression equation, objective weather forecast products of highway section are produced and applied in service.
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Key words:
- automatic weather station;
- traffic weather;
- forecast
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图 1 北京奥运交通气象服务路线分布图
Fig. 1 The distribution of meteorological service route for Beijing Olympic traffic
表 1 北京奥运交通路段名称和对应的自动气象站一览表
Table 1 The schedule of the traffic section names of Beijing Olympic and the corresponding automatic weather stations
表 2 北京奥运交通路段自动气象站气象要索的回归拟合率一览表（单位：%)
Table 2 The schedule of regression fitting rate of meteorological elements of Beijing Olympic traffic section automatic weather station (unit:%)
表 3 2008年8月1-24日奧运交通路段预报质呈考核一览表（单位：%）
Table 3 The schedule of the evaluation of weather forcast for Beijing Olympic traffic section during Aug 1-24, 2008(unit:%)
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