长江下游百年一遇的极值风速分布
Speed Distribution of 100-year Extreme Winds in Lower-reaches of the Yangtze
-
摘要: 利用2000-2006年长江下游沿江8个风速、风向观测点与邻近气象站同步对比观测资料和1971—2006年长江下游40个气象站风资料, 依据具99%置信水平的数理重构方案和极值Ⅰ型计算方法, 详细给出长江下游百年一遇风速分布状况。结果表明:长江下游沿江地区百年一遇极值风速为25~38 m/s, 较一般方法上限高3 m/s, 下限低2 m/s; 长江南京—镇江段和南通—崇明段, 是长江下游沿江地区的两个大风区, 百年一遇极值风速不低于29 m/s, 其在入海口附近可达34 m/s以上; 在长江常州—江阴段, 江南、江北对称分布两个风速相对低值区, 百年一遇极值风速为23~24 m/s。该结果充分考虑气象站风速资料和局地风速状况, 是沿江相关工程气象应用的重要补充。Abstract: In engineering meteorological application the basic wind speed of 100-year return period is commonly confirmed according to the recommend value of national regulation or China basic wind speed distribute map by the method of interpolation. In order to avoid both the potential hazard in engineering design and the higher cost in construction, which may be caused by the low re solution of the basic wind speed distribute map in low er-reaches of the Yangtze and the lacking of actual wind speed data along the river, eight short-term wind observation points are selected along low er-reaches of the Yangtze, and the observation runs synchronously with their neighboring meteorological stations from 2000 to 2006. So the observation pro gram is set up to meet the demand of engineering constructions along low er-reaches of the Yangtze. The observation points are built by on-side investigation to eliminate the extreme terrain effects and can represent the actual wind of the low er-reaches to the largest extent. At every observation point, it is assured that more than one year of simultaneous observation with its adjacent weather station is carried out, although the observational time for each point is not always homology. Based on the short-term synchronous wind data and the annual maximum wind speeds of 40 weather stations of lower-reaches of the Yangtze from 1971 to 2006, the 99% confidence level logistic reconfiguration scheme and extreme value Ⅰ type calculation procedure are referred also a new wind speed distributive status over lower-reaches of the Yangtze is described in detail. Results indicate that along low er-reaches of the Yangtze the 100-year return period maximum wind speed is 25 to 38 m· s-1 which is 3 m ·s-1 larger than upper limit and 2 m · s-1 smaller than lower limit of the result by the general method. lower-reaches of the Yangtze, two gale regions exist both in the Nanjing-Zhenjiang segment and in the Nantong-Chongming segment, where the 100-year return period maximum wind speed is greater than 29 m ·s-1 and even above 34 m · s-1 near the entrance. It is also found that on both sides of Changzhou-Jiangyin river segment two lower extreme wind speed regions are symmetrical distribution, where the 100-year return period maximum wind speed is about 23 to 24 m· s-1. Fully considering the wind data of weather stations and the local wind speed observation, the results are important supplement for the concerned meteorological application works.
-
表 1 沿江观测点与邻近气象站10 m高度10 min平均同步观测最大风速相关关系
Table 1 Relationships of 10-minute average maximum wind speed at 10-meter height between observation points along the Yangtze and theirs adjacent meteorological stations
-
[1] 中交公路规划设计院.公路桥梁抗风设计规范 (JTC/T D60-01-2004).北京:人民交通出版社, 2004:29-45. [2] 李杰, 陈建兵, 张琳琳, 等.中国大陆地区年最大平均风速的概率密度函数.自然灾害学报, 2006, 15(5):6-82. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZRZH200605011.htm [3] 张忠义, 刘聪, 居为民.南京长江第二大桥桥位风速观测及设计风速计算.气象科学, 2000, 20(2):201-205. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKX200002011.htm [4] 刘聪, 黄世成, 严迎春.长江南通段江面风速的观测分析.自然灾害学报, 2005, 14(4):1-7. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZRZH200504000.htm [5] 刘聪, 黄世成, 朱安祥, 等.苏通长江公路大桥设计风速的计算与分析.应用气象学报, 2006, 17(1):44-51. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20060107&flag=1 [6] 刘小宁.我国40年年平均风速的均一性检验.应用气象学报, 2000, 11(1):27-34. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20000105&flag=1 [7] 么枕生, 丁裕国.气候统计.北京:气象出版社, 1990:41-50. [8] Talagrand O. Assimilation of observations:An introduction. J Meteor Soc Japan, 1997, 75:191-209. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229086740_Assimilation_of_Observations_an_Introduction [9] 薛敏, 袁春红, 薛桁.用短期风记录估算长期风速的方法.气象, 2002, 28(6):28-31. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX200206005.htm [10] 张秀芝, 陈乾金.用短期大风资料推算极值风速的一种方法.应用气象学报, 1993, 4(1):105-111. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19930120&flag=1 [11] Simiu E, Heckert N A, Filliben J J, et al. Extreme wind load estimates based on the gumbel distribution of dynamic pressure. Structural Safety, 2001, 23(3):221-229. doi: 10.1016/S0167-4730(01)00016-9 [12] 孙安健, 刘小宁.极端风速分布模式在我国各气候区域的适用性.气象, 1993, 19(10):12-15. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX199310002.htm [13] 孟庆珍, 王增武, 冯新, 等.重庆地面最高气温与最大风速年极值的渐近分布.成都信息工程学院学报, 2004, 19(3):436-441. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-CDQX200403028.htm [14] 高绍凤, 陈万隆, 朱超群, 等.应用气候学.北京:气象出版社, 2001:127-130. [15] 刘聪, 秦伟良, 江志红.基于广义极值分布的设计基本风速及其置信限计算.东南大学学报 (自然科学版), 2006, 36(2): 331-334. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DNDX200602031.htm [16] 段忠东, 周道成, 欧进萍.渤海和南海海域极值风速的置信区间.海洋通报, 2003, 22(2):17-24. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HUTB200302002.htm [17] 林忠辉, 莫兴国, 李宏轩, 等.中国陆地区域气象要素的空间插值.地理学报, 2002, 57(1):47-56. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DLXB200201005.htm [18] 庄立伟, 王石立.东北地区逐日气象要素的空间插值方法应用研究.应用气象学报, 2003, 14(5):605-615. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20030575&flag=1 [19] 高歌, 龚乐冰, 赵珊珊, 等.日降水量空间插值方法研究.应用气象学报, 2007, 18(5):732-736. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=200705111&flag=1 [20] 中华人民共和国建设部.建筑结构荷载规范 (GB 50009-2001).北京:中国建筑工业出版社, 2002:72-86.