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区域气候模式对我国冬春季气温和降水预报评估

孙林海

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兑秀
宋文玲 刘一鸣

孙林海, 艾孑兑秀, 宋文玲, 等. 区域气候模式对我国冬春季气温和降水预报评估. 应用气象学报, 2009, 20(5): 546-554..
引用本文: 孙林海,
兑秀, 宋文玲, 等. 区域气候模式对我国冬春季气温和降水预报评估. 应用气象学报, 2009, 20(5): 546-554.
Sun Linhai, Ai Wanxiu, Song Wenling, et al. Assessment analysis on winter and spring temperature and rainfall forecasts over China with regional climate model. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(5): 546-554.
Citation: Sun Linhai, Ai Wanxiu, Song Wenling, et al. Assessment analysis on winter and spring temperature and rainfall forecasts over China with regional climate model. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(5): 546-554.

区域气候模式对我国冬春季气温和降水预报评估

资助项目: 

中国气象局新技术推广重点项目“月动力模式与统计降尺度结合预测极端温度日数” CMATG2009ID03

国家自然科学基金项目“我国动力统计相结合的年度预测方法研究” 40675038

Assessment Analysis on Winter and Spring Temperature and Rainfall Forecasts over China with Regional Climate Model

  • 摘要: 使用国家气候中心全球海气耦合模式嵌套区域气候模式 (RegCM_NCC) 对1983— 2002年冬季以及1984—2003年春季我国平均气温和降水进行了数值回报试验, 并对2003— 2007年进行实时预报。结果表明:区域气候模式20年冬、春季平均气温的回报与实况在分布形态上较为相似, 我国大部地区平均气温预报与实况接近; 模式回报的冬、春季降水量的分布形态与实况有较大差异, 全国大部地区模式回报降水量比实况偏多, 西南地区降水量误差最大。使用国家气候中心气候预测室的业务预报评分 (P) 和距平相关系数 (ACC) 等5个评估参数对模式的回报和预报进行了评估分析, 结果表明:该模式对我国冬、春季平均气温和降水具有一定的跨季度预报能力。大多数年份冬、春季平均气温的P评分在60以上, 冬、春季平均气温多年平均分别为66.4和67.8;大多数年份的冬、春季降水评分为60~75, 冬、春季降水多年平均分别为69.9和65.6。
  • 图  1  1983— 2002年冬季 (12月—次年2月) 平均气温和降水量及其误差分布

    (a) 平均气温实况, (b) RegCM_NCC模式平均气温回报, (c) 降水量实况, (d) RegCM_NCC模式降水量回报, (e) 平均气温误差, (f) 降水量误差

    Fig. 1  Distribution of winter average temperature and precipitation with their error over China from 1983 to 2002

    (a) observation of average temperature, (b) the hindcast of average temperature by RegCM_NCC, (c) observation of precipitation, (d) the hindcast of precipitation by RegCM_NCC, (e) the error of average temperature, (f) the error of precipitation

    图  2  1983— 2002年冬季实况与RegCM_NCC模式回报平均气温 (a) 和降水 (b) 相关分布

    (阴影区为通过90 %信度检验的区域)

    Fig. 2  Correlation coefficient distribution between RegCM_NCC and the observation in winter from 1983 to 2002

    (shadow areas mean passing the test of 90 % level)

    图  3  1983— 2007年冬季RegCM_NCC模式平均气温 (a) 和降水 (b) 的P评分和相关系数ACC

    Fig. 3  The P score and correlation co efficient between RegCM NCC and the observation in winter from 1983 to 2007 (a) ave rage temperature, (b) precipitation

    图  4  1984—2003年春季平均气温和降水量及其误差分布

    (a) 平均气温实况, (b) RegCM_NCC模式平均气温回报, (c) 降水量实况, (d) RegCM_NCC模式降水量回报, (e) 平均气温误差, (f) 降水量误差

    Fig. 4  Distribution of spring average temperature and precipitation with their error over China from 1984 to 2003

    (a) observation of average temperature, (b) the hindcast of the average temperature by RegCM_NCC, (c) obse rvation of precipitation, (d) the hindcast of precipitation by RegCM_NCC, (e) the error of average temperature, (f) the error of precipitation

    图  5  1984— 2003年春季实况与RegCM_NCC模式回报平均气温 (a) 和降水 (b) 相关分布

    (阴影区为相关系数通过90 %信度检验的区域)

    Fig. 5  Correlation coefficient distribution between RegCM_NCC and the observation in spring from 1984 to 2003 (a) average temperature, (b) precipitation

    (shadow areas mean passing the test of 90 % level)

    图  6  1984— 2007年春季RegCM_NCC模式平均气温 (a) 和降水 (b) 的P评分和相关系数ACC

    Fig. 6  The P score and correlation coefficient between RegCM_NCC and the observation in spring from 1984 to 2007 (a) average temperature, (b) precipitation

    表  1  RegCM_NCC模式1983— 2007年冬季平均气温和降水的评估参数

    Table  1  Assessment parameters of RegCM_NCC on average temperature and precipitation in winter during 1983— 2007

    表  2  RegCM_NCC模式1984— 2007年春季平均气温和降水的评估参数

    Table  2  Assessment parameters of RegCM_NCC on average temperature and precipitation in spring during 1984— 2007

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2008-07-23
  • 修回日期:  2009-06-22
  • 刊出日期:  2009-10-31

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