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区域气候模式对我国冬春季气温和降水预报评估
Assessment Analysis on Winter and Spring Temperature and Rainfall Forecasts over China with Regional Climate Model
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摘要: 使用国家气候中心全球海气耦合模式嵌套区域气候模式 (RegCM_NCC) 对1983— 2002年冬季以及1984—2003年春季我国平均气温和降水进行了数值回报试验, 并对2003— 2007年进行实时预报。结果表明:区域气候模式20年冬、春季平均气温的回报与实况在分布形态上较为相似, 我国大部地区平均气温预报与实况接近; 模式回报的冬、春季降水量的分布形态与实况有较大差异, 全国大部地区模式回报降水量比实况偏多, 西南地区降水量误差最大。使用国家气候中心气候预测室的业务预报评分 (P) 和距平相关系数 (ACC) 等5个评估参数对模式的回报和预报进行了评估分析, 结果表明:该模式对我国冬、春季平均气温和降水具有一定的跨季度预报能力。大多数年份冬、春季平均气温的P评分在60以上, 冬、春季平均气温多年平均分别为66.4和67.8;大多数年份的冬、春季降水评分为60~75, 冬、春季降水多年平均分别为69.9和65.6。Abstract: Regional climate model of National Climate Center (RegCM_NCC) is developed from the second generation regional climate model (RegCM2) of NCAR.Horizontal resolution of RegCM_NCC is 60 km, andthe center position is 35°N, 110°E, with 151 by 79 g rids, covering most areas of the East Asian.The vertical dimension is divided into 16 layers, and the top-level atmospheric pressure is 100 hPa.15 laps are adopted for buffer zone.The initial and lateral boundary conditions come from the corresponding nested National Climate Center global coupled model (CGCM_NCC).In order to study the prediction ability of RegCM_NCC, operational assessment (five parameters) ofNational Climate Center are used to assess the hindcast of average temperature and precipitation of RegCM_NCC from 1983 to 2002 in winter and 1984 to 2003 in spring, as well as the real-time forecasting from2003 to 2007.The hindcast of ave rage temperature in winter by RegCM_NCC for 20 years is similar to the observation.The forecast of the average temperature is low er than the observation in general.The hindcast ofprecipitation distribution in winter is obviously different from the observation.Forecasts of precipitationare in southwest China are especially inaccurate.The correlation coefficient distributions of the averagetemperature and precipitation between the forecast and the observation in most areas are positive.The P score of w inter average temperature in most years are greater than 60, and the average is 66.4.The ACC of winter average temperature is -0.7—0.4 and the average is -0.07.The P score of the winter precipitation in most years are 60—80 and the average is 69.9.The ACC of precipitation are -0.2—0.5, with the average of 0.05.The hindcast of average temperature in spring by RegCM_NCC for 20 years is similar to the observation.The forecast of average temperature in eastern China is higher, and that in western China is low erthan observation.There are great differences between hindcast of spring precipitation distribution and theobservation.In southwest China the precipitation forecasts accuracy is rather poor.The correlation coefficient distributions of the average temperature between the forecast and the observation in most area arepositive.Negative correlation distribution of precipitation is to the north of the Yangtze River.The P score of the spring average temperature in most years are greater than 60, and the average is67.8.The ACC of spring average temperature is -0.5—0.5 and the average is 0.05.The P score of thespring precipitation in most years are 60—75 and the average is 65.6.The ACC of precipitation are-0.4—0.3, with the average of -0.01.The assessment of the forecasts with regional climate model of National Climate Center approve s themodel' s ability in forecasting average temperature and precipitation in winter and spring.The forecastinglevel needs further improving for the low mean score and ACC.
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Key words:
- regional climate model;
- hindcast;
- forecast;
- assessment
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图 1 1983— 2002年冬季 (12月—次年2月) 平均气温和降水量及其误差分布
(a) 平均气温实况, (b) RegCM_NCC模式平均气温回报, (c) 降水量实况, (d) RegCM_NCC模式降水量回报, (e) 平均气温误差, (f) 降水量误差
Fig. 1 Distribution of winter average temperature and precipitation with their error over China from 1983 to 2002
(a) observation of average temperature, (b) the hindcast of average temperature by RegCM_NCC, (c) observation of precipitation, (d) the hindcast of precipitation by RegCM_NCC, (e) the error of average temperature, (f) the error of precipitation
图 2 1983— 2002年冬季实况与RegCM_NCC模式回报平均气温 (a) 和降水 (b) 相关分布
(阴影区为通过90 %信度检验的区域)
Fig. 2 Correlation coefficient distribution between RegCM_NCC and the observation in winter from 1983 to 2002
(shadow areas mean passing the test of 90 % level)
图 3 1983— 2007年冬季RegCM_NCC模式平均气温 (a) 和降水 (b) 的P评分和相关系数ACC
Fig. 3 The P score and correlation co efficient between RegCM NCC and the observation in winter from 1983 to 2007 (a) ave rage temperature, (b) precipitation
图 4 1984—2003年春季平均气温和降水量及其误差分布
(a) 平均气温实况, (b) RegCM_NCC模式平均气温回报, (c) 降水量实况, (d) RegCM_NCC模式降水量回报, (e) 平均气温误差, (f) 降水量误差
Fig. 4 Distribution of spring average temperature and precipitation with their error over China from 1984 to 2003
(a) observation of average temperature, (b) the hindcast of the average temperature by RegCM_NCC, (c) obse rvation of precipitation, (d) the hindcast of precipitation by RegCM_NCC, (e) the error of average temperature, (f) the error of precipitation
图 5 1984— 2003年春季实况与RegCM_NCC模式回报平均气温 (a) 和降水 (b) 相关分布
(阴影区为相关系数通过90 %信度检验的区域)
Fig. 5 Correlation coefficient distribution between RegCM_NCC and the observation in spring from 1984 to 2003 (a) average temperature, (b) precipitation
(shadow areas mean passing the test of 90 % level)
图 6 1984— 2007年春季RegCM_NCC模式平均气温 (a) 和降水 (b) 的P评分和相关系数ACC
Fig. 6 The P score and correlation coefficient between RegCM_NCC and the observation in spring from 1984 to 2007 (a) average temperature, (b) precipitation
表 1 RegCM_NCC模式1983— 2007年冬季平均气温和降水的评估参数
Table 1 Assessment parameters of RegCM_NCC on average temperature and precipitation in winter during 1983— 2007
表 2 RegCM_NCC模式1984— 2007年春季平均气温和降水的评估参数
Table 2 Assessment parameters of RegCM_NCC on average temperature and precipitation in spring during 1984— 2007
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